October 12 Weather Enjoy Sun Today As Mild Temps Fade With Storm Arriving Saturday

October 12, 2023

Thursday Morning Update

This may be a frequent setup this winter. There is a storm in the Gulf of Mexico staying to our south, a common El Niño pattern. This sets up the next storm storm that will reach us and develop overhead on Saturday into Sunday morning. The result of this will redesign the upper-level jet stream pattern to lock in colder air across the Eastern US into next week.

Morning Surface Weather

Watching a southern storm miss us, but the northern edge of clouds still clipping parts of Maryland and Virginia.

There is a bubble of dry weather ahead of the next storm racing east from the Rockies. This will be our storm over the weekend.

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures

This will be the last mild day with sunshine for a while.

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY October 12

Sunrise at 7:13 AM

Sunset at 6:33 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  48ºF

Record 29ºF in 1964

Normal High in Baltimore: 70ºF

Record 89ºF 1954

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Thursday:

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures

Looking Ahead: Next Weekend

I will be with up to 5,000 cyclists in the Seagull Century on the 100-mile course between Salisbury University and Assateague Island that starts around sunrise. In Baltimore, there will be roughly 11,000 at the running festival, while Northern Carroll County will be hosting the final River Valley Run. Horses will be racing in the Maryland Million at Laurel later in the morning.

Adding to the mix, there is the Catoctin Colorfest Craft Festival in Thurmont and Garrett County hosts Autumn Glory in Oakland at 1 PM. The largest fall festival and I was honored to be the Grand Marshall a few years ago.

Friday Afternoon to Sunday Afternoon

Rain will develop during the day on Saturday and last into Sunday morning.

Closer Look: Saturday Morning To Sunday Afternoon

Saturday Afternoon:

This is when the storm will begin to take form.

Snapshots

8 AM Saturday

The Running Festival and Seagull Century will be underway by this time. There may be hope for some dry hours early in the day. However, the rain will be advancing to the north and south. and closing in.

Other Models

NAM

This model shows steady rain in western Maryland and entering southern Maryland… But possibly a few hours dry in central Maryland.

ECMWF

This may be another test for this European Model that is on its own.. and it has been falling short lately. So I don’t buy it staying this dry.

Temperatures

It will be chilly to start with temps in the 50s and they won’t move much.

11 AM

It is hard to pinpoint specifics this early, but there is a chance the rain will hold off a little longer around Baltimore. But I would plan for a few showers at any time.

2 PM

Rain will be expanding across the entire region. It will be steady and possibly heavy sooner to the north and south.

5 PM

Everyone will turn wet. It may actually be soggy and heavy at times.

8 PM

Rain will last through the night.

Looking Ahead: Cold Pattern

This may be a trend into winter. Following this storm, the jet stream will try to dig in a deep trough and close off an upper-level low over the Eastern US.

Jet Stream Friday Afternoon to Wednesday

Following this storm, there is a very pronounced cold pattern set to settle in the Eastern US.

Monday Afternoon

A potent upper-level Low and Deep Trough will have another grip across the Eastern US.  It may bring us high temperatures 15 to 20 degrees colder than normal. That could translate to lower 50s in central Maryland and the first frost for many inland.

7 Day Forecast

There will be more rain on Saturday during the afternoon and evening. This should linger until Sunday morning. Then we remain in a cool and unsettled pattern into next week with a chance for rain showers each day… especially in the afternoons.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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