September 21 More Agreement About The Weekend Coastal Storm And Possible Flooding

September 21, 2023

Thursday Morning Update

Today will be a nice day, and then it goes downhill for the weekend. It looks like the storm is on Soaker Saturday and may remain Soggy on Sunday.

All week, I have been discussing a tropical-like system forming off the Southeast US coast and moving our way this weekend. Yesterday, the National Hurricane Center identified this as an area of ‘interest’. There is a low chance it will completely form, but it will have plenty of moisture. It will produce heavy rain and high water on the Chesapeake Bay, enhanced by the Fall Equinox tides.

Morning Surface Weather

High Pressure is moving off the coast, which will allow the winds to shift. We are also watching that area of interest identified by the National Hurricane Center. There is only a 10% chance it will develop, however, there are tropical characteristics that will feed into the storm.

This will move NORTH and reach us all by Saturday.

Storm Forecast Below

Afternoon Temperature Forecast

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY September 21

Sunrise at 6:53 AM

Sunset at 7:06 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  57ºF

Record 37ºF in 1956; 1962

Normal High in Baltimore: 78ºF

Record 96ºF 1895

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Friday Weather: The Day Before The Storm

Winds and clouds will increase from the East.

Friday Morning

Friday Afternoon

Storm Update

I want to start off with the European ECMWF Model. This was the holdout, trying to bump it off the coast, as I showed in my report last night. Since then, the model has fallen in line with the rest to bring us the storm and keep it around all weekend.

Storm Animation: ECMWF Model Friday Morning to Sunday Night

Model Comparison: Saturday Afternoon

This looks like a lot more agreement for a Saturday Soaker. There is still a variation in storm position and track, but negligible to the general rainy expectations. The real difference will be in rain totals.

The net result will be rain and gusty winds, mostly from the Northeast, resulting in a chilly day remaining in the 60s.

Closer Look: Mid-Atlantic GFS Model

Since this has been the most consistent model, I am relying on it for the overall expectations.

Friday Night to Monday Morning

This covers our weekend and shows three main things:

1. The arrival of rain into Southern Maryland will be AFTER DARK on Friday,
2. Saturday will be rainy and windy!
3. Sunday once again has the storm stalling. The Ravens game looks chilly and wet!

Snapshots

Saturday Afternoon

Sunday Afternoon

With the remaining Low Pressure, a chilly north wind and leftover showers are expected for the Ravens game.

Wind Forecast

Animation: Friday Through Sunday

We can see the slow-moving circulation of the Low Pressure entering central Maryland. The winds FROM THE NORTH on the back side of the storm are what will keep us chilly with the rain.

Snapshot Saturday Afternoon

There may be water piling up on the Western Shore of the Bay, so look out for Coastal Flood Alerts in addition to Flood Advisories from the rain.

Sunday Afternoon

Less windy but chilly from the North.

Top Wind Gusts

There will be noticeable winds across the region. Central areas may gust to over 40 mph, with coastal areas possibly reaching over 50 mph.

Rainfall Potential

Considering that the European model had shown the storm as a miss, it is now in line with the GFS model to bring a few inches for most areas.

There will be LESS WEST and MORE EAST

GFS Model

European ECMWF Model

7 Day Forecast

Our Storm Day will be Saturday, but I have to increase our likelihood for it to linger with a chilly day and showers on Sunday. It will be chilly at the Ravens game!

Both afternoons will remain in the 60s. Remember, just last week, we had our record-breaking heat wave! This will be an adjustment.

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I will have a follow-up and recap on our amazing week shortly.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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