September 7 Fourth Record High Ends Stretch With Severe Storm Risk And Hurricane Lee

September 7, 2023

Thursday Morning Update

We got what was expected, now let’s see if the rest plays out. Yesterday brought the first 100ºF day to Baltimore since July 2020. This was the 4th record in a row and it should end here. Today’s record of 101ºF was the hottest September record set in 1881. But with increased humidity and more clouds with developing storms, the temps should be limited.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of severe storms for our region today.

Additionally, Hurricane Lee is intensifying and will become a major hurricane tomorrow. More on that below.

Record Highs For Baltimore

A 4th record high in a row was broken for Baltimore yesterday. That marks 4 days in a row, matching a record September heat wave in 1970.

(Sun) Sept 3 = 97ºF in 1898 – Broken with 1 minute at 98ºF

(Mon) Sept 4 = 96ºF in 2019; Broken with 99ºF

(Tue) Sept 5 = 96ºF in 1954; Broken with 99ºF

(Wed) Sept 6 = 98ºF in 1983; Broken with 100ºF

——This Should End The Streak——

(Thu) Sept 7 = 101ºF in 1881 *Hottest September day for Baltimore

(Fri) Sept 8 = 100ºF in 1939

Historical Perspective

Before the sensationalism you may hear this week, long-duration record heat waves have happened in September before.

Here are the late September records for Baltimore. In 1931, there were two records for the 21st and 22nd, which were the 3rd records for that year/month.

1970: September 23 to 26 had 4 days with record highs. The 24th was tied in 2010 and may be the one that shows up on some apps/news reports.

New Report:

Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs

Return to Cold and Snow.

Morning Surface Weather

Hot and more humid today, but not reaching the record. This time we have a cold front approaching that will help ignite showers and severe storms.

Severe Storm Risk

I am sorry the map looks ‘off’ today. I have an issue with my graphics program and put this together as a backup in a rush.

This is NOT a promise there will be storms that turn severe. Just a higher chance they may occur from the mountains through central Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania.

Afternoon Forecast

Radar Simulations

The short-range modeling has had some trouble recently. Here is a comparison of two products. The similarities are they both show developing afternoon and evening storms… more likely west and north of Baltimore.

Timing will be AFTER 2 PM through tonight.

NAM 3 Km Model:

Noon to Midnight

WRF Model:

Noon to Midnight

Hurricane Lee

This was upgraded yesterday as expected. The next phase is the upgrade to a major hurricane by Friday. The realistic expectation is that this will remain over the ocean but like Franklin and Idalia, send high waves to the East Coast.

National Hurricane Center Advisory

5 AM Update

• LOCATION…16.1N 48.6W
• ABOUT 965 MI…1555 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…989 MB…29.21 INCHES

Satellite Loop

It is looking well organized and likely to rapidly develop into a major hurricane on Friday. This will make for some impressive satellite imagery.

Forecast Intensity: Computer Model Guidance

The most likely peak in intensity will be a Category 4, but there is a 10% chance it could reach Category 5 this weekend.

Forecast Track From The National Hurricane Center

Longer Range Guidance

GEPS Member Spread

Forecast Animation: Jet Stream GFS Model

The cooling and wet pattern that will shift to the Eastern US (see more below) will be part of a trough that we expect will help curve and shift Lee away from the US mainland.

There is still concern for Rip Currents along the entire coast, Bermuda, and even a landfall for Nova Scotia in eastern Canada.

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY September 7

Sunrise at 6:41 AM

Sunset at 7:27 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  62ºF

Record 45ºF in 1962

Normal High in Baltimore: 83ºF

Record 101ºF 1881 *Highest September Day On Record

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Temperature Forecast

Friday Morning

Friday Afternoon

Storms Breaking The Heat

Rain Forecast Friday to Monday

Increased chance for daily storms especially in the afternoon and evenings through Monday.

7 Day Forecast

While still hot and more humid, we will miss today’s record AND introduce some thunderstorms. The risk of rain and storms will increase through the weekend.

EXPLORE MORE

2023 Hurricane Season Forecast With An El Niño Watch

EARLIER IN AUGUST: Maryland Trek 10 For These Kids

I will have a follow-up and recap on our amazing week shortly.

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La Niña Has Ended. El Niño May Return By Fall

Aurora Photos From Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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