Moderate Drought Risk To Expand As We Enter September And A Heat Wave

Saturday, September 2 2023

The results of a dry year are catching up as we finish out the growing season with a forecasted record-breaking heat wave. The high temperatures and low humidity over the next week will push the limited ground moisture to likely expand the drought conditions.

Centered on Maryland, nearly 16% of the state has been labeled in a Moderate Drought by the US Drought Monitor. The conditions and maps generated by this agency have been questioned by some locals who believe the conditions are worse. I am afraid that they may be proven correct in the next week.

For now, here are the latest conditions as reported on Thursday August 31, 2023.

Mid Atlantic Region Map

See the state maps below for Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia.

Maryland

Drought Map

A Moderate Drought does remain in central Maryland west of the Chesapeake Bay. The hardest hit areas continue to be in Carroll and Frederick Counties between Westminster and Frederick. The driest conditions continue as well for Mount Airy to Germantown.

• Maryland has 26% percent in the dry to very dry rating. 
• Moderate Drought affecting 16%

Estimated Population in Drought Areas: 1,101,191

EXPERIMENTAL MIDI MAP

This may better reflect local conditions, however many people outside of the moderate drought designation believe they should be included as well.

Rainfall Measuring In Baltimore

After a widespread drought affected much of the region in spring, the summer months have helped to balance things out and bring us closer to normal. That is at least for the official station at BWI.

Using the reporting station for Baltimore at BWI Airport, we can get a sense of what the region has been experiencing. I compared the monthly observations for precipitation to the average. We can see months above average were April, June, and July. August was back below average, and the total Year to Date is -5.01”

• Jan -1.40”
• Feb -0.72”
• Mar -2.52”
• Apr +0.73”
• May -3.30”
• June +0.33”
• July + 4.17”
• August= -0.36”

TOTAL = -5.01” for the year! This has been an increase of 1 inch in the last two weeks.

Maryland Drought History and Impacts

The state’s two largest droughts on record occurred in 1930–1932 and 1962–1969, with the most recent severe drought occurring in 1999–2002. During this drought, the at-the-time Governor declared a Drought Emergency and implemented mandatory water use restrictions on all users.

Droughts in Maryland have had cascading effects on ecosystems. During the 2002 drought, smaller streams dried up, leaving aquatic flora and fauna to dry. Reduced streamflow and rainfall increased levels of salinity in the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries, which led to fish kills and invasive species. Agriculture has been impacted by droughts and periods of lowered rainfalls, leading to livestock sell-offs and lowered crop yields, particularly in central, southern, and eastern Maryland.

Drought also has far-reaching impacts on water supply. Most drinking water from Maryland comes from two large surface water systems: WSSC and Baltimore City. These two water suppliers maintain reservoirs to meet demands for water supplies during low flow periods in the late summer. Historically, droughts have most heavily impacted well yields in the unconfined fractured rock aquifers of the Piedmont region of Maryland. Municipalities drawing from wells in this region imposed heavy restrictions on water usage and thousands of domestic wells were replaced during the 1999–2002 drought.

According to the US Drought Monitor:

States vary historically on what the impacts can be. However, here is what can be expected.

• Honey production declines
• Irrigation use increases; hay and grain yields are lower than normal
• Trees and landscaping are stressed; fish are stressed
• Voluntary water conservation is requested; reservoir and lake levels are below normal capacity
• Wildfires and ground fires increase

PENNSYLVANIA

Pennsylvania has improved a lot: Moderate Drought affecting only 1%

Estimated Population in Drought Areas: 102,455

The hardest hit local areas continue to be Adams and part of York Counties.

VIRGINIA

Virginia  has 12.2% in Moderate Drought

Mainly across the Shenandoah Mountain Region

Estimated Population in Drought Areas: 761,040

WEST VIRGINIA

Virginia  has 7.8% in Moderate Drought

Estimated Population in Drought Areas: 78,167

7 Day Forecast – Central Maryland

We will get into the 90s as soon as tomorrow and all of next week. The approach to 100ºF may happen a few more days than I noted below, yet most days may reach or set a new record high (as shown).

It should be noted that often we get heat waves to last longer than first suggested, so we could challenge records later in the week as well… especially if the risk of rain is diminished or pushed back.

EXPLORE MORE

2023 Hurricane Season Forecast With An El Niño Watch

EARLIER THIS MONTH:  Maryland Trek 10 For These Kids

I will have a follow-up and recap on our amazing week shortly.

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La Niña Has Ended. El Niño May Return By Fall

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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