August 30 Hurricane Idalia Category 4 With 130 mph Winds Ahead Of Landfall Today

August 30, 2023

Wednesday Morning Update

Overnight Idalia upgraded again. The 5 AM Advisory from the National Hurricane Center recorded winds of 130 mph, making this a Category 4 storm. The combination of this reaching peak strength plus the full moon today will enhance the storm surge. This will make landfall this morning, possibly between 7 AM and 9 AM.

In addition to storm surge across a wide area of western Florida, there will be heavy rain flooding and embedded tornadoes. The only saving grace is that it did nudge west tracking to hit a mainly rural area of the Big Bend of Florida, but the results will still be devastating where peak storm surge could be up to 15 Ft.

As a result of this growing stronger, it will remain a hurricane longer inland across Georgia and perhaps when it crosses South Carolina.

There have been special statements into the Mid Atlantic to account for higher water from this AND Franklin in the Atlantic. We will not get a direct impact, but water will be higher for a few days.

Our local weather in the Mid Atlantic does feature some rain showers with a cold front. This is the same weather system that is helping to direct Idalia to curve and turn out to sea from South Carolina.

Morning Surface Weather

A Double Barrel Cold Front will be moving through the Atlantic. This will produce some showers this morning, then drop the humidity. As it also helps to steer Hurricane Idalia through the Southeast and off the coast, it will pull in cool air for a few days.

More on our local forecast below.

Hurricane Idalia Satellite Loop

Max Winds Now Up To 130 mph = Category 4 Storm

Hurricane Force Winds reach 25 miles from the center.

Tropical Storm Force Winds reach 175 miles from the center.

Hurricane Idalia

National Hurricane Center Update

• LOCATION…29.1N 84.1W
• ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
• ABOUT 90 MI…145 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…130 MPH…215 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…940 MB…27.76 INCHES

Live Interactive Radar

National Hurricane Center Forecast Track/Times

This is still expected to be a Category 4 storm with winds of 130 mph or higher and may make landfall near or just north of Cedar Key.

We can see Hurricane Franklin on the edge of the map. Please note that the end location for Idalia will be where Franklin ‘was’. It will be moving away and they will not merge.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

An extension into South and North Carolina has been made to reflect the stronger storm AND closer to arrival.

NOTE: A Special Statement was made for Delmarva in the Mid Atlantic. This was to address some higher water with the two hurricanes AND high tide from the full moon. There will not be a direct impact other than that in the Mid Atlantic.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…

• Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay
• St. Catherine’s Sound to South Santee River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

• Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

• Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
• West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
• Sebastian Inlet Florida to Surf City North Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…

• Bonita Beach northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
• Mouth of the St. Mary’s River to St. Catherine’s Sound Georgia
• Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet North Carolina
• Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

• Mouth of the St. Mary’s River to Altamaha Sound
• Edisto Beach to South Santee River

Closer Look At Track and Landfall

Hardest Hit Areas

If there is a 10 to 15 Foot Storm Surge, it would most likely affect:

• Cedar Key
• Suwannee
• Horseshoe Beach
• Steinhatchee

The strongest rain bands and possible tornado areas may include

• The Villages
• Ocala
• Gainesville
• Up through Lake City and Live Oak

The eye is forecast to track by

• Salem
• Downing Park
• And Jasper

Storm Surge Forecast

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

• Wakulla/Jefferson County, FL to Yankeetown, FL…12-16 ft
• Ochlockonee River, FL to Wakulla/Jefferson County, FL…8-12 ft
• Yankeetown, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL…7-11 ft
• Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL…6-9 ft
• Carrabelle, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL…5-8 ft
• Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL…4-6 ft
• Tampa Bay…4-6 ft
• Indian Pass, FL to Carrabelle, FL…3-5 ft
• Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL…3-5 ft
• Saint Catherines Sound, GA to South Santee River, SC…3-5 ft
• Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…2-4 ft
• Beaufort Inlet, NC to Ocracoke Inlet, NC…2-4 ft
• Mouth of the St. Mary’s River to Saint Catherines Sound, GA…2-4 ft
• Charlotte Harbor…2-4 ft
• Neuse and Bay Rivers…2-4 ft
• Pamlico and Pungo Rivers…2-4 ft
• Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of the St. Mary’s
• River…1-3 ft
• Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL…1-3 ft
• Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL…1-3 ft
• South Santee River, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC…1-3 ft
• Ocracoke Inlet, NC to Duck, NC…1-3 ft

ECWMF Model: Tuesday Morning to Friday Morning

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY August 30

Sunrise at 6:33 AM

Sunset at 7:41 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  65F

Record 45ºF in 1986

Normal High in Baltimore: 85ºF

Record 101ºF 1953

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Temperature Forecast

Wednesday Afternoon

Thursday Morning

Thursday Afternoon

7 Day Forecast

After Hurricane Idalia moves off the coast, pleasant weather will follow and leave us with many sunny days. This is not good news for the growing drought, but will provide dry days through Labor Day Weekend. Temperatures will get back to the 90s by the end of the weekend.

EXPLORE MORE

2023 Hurricane Season Forecast With An El Niño Watch

EARLIER THIS MONTH:  Maryland Trek 10 For These Kids

I will have a follow-up and recap on our amazing week shortly.

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La Niña Has Ended. El Niño May Return By Fall

Aurora Photos From Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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