Hurricane Idalia Getting Stronger And Higher Storm Surge Forecast For Florida August 29

Tuesday, August 29 Mid-Day Update

Idalia is still a Category 1 hurricane as of the 11 AM Tuesday advisory from The National Hurricane Center. It is now about to undergo the expected rapid development. We can see that with the satellite loop and multiple Air Force reconnaissance flights.

This is likely to be a major hurricane Category 3 by Wednesday morning. The concern is the warm water and possible underestimation from the computer guidance, so there is a chance it gets even stronger and makes landfall while intensifying. That is the worst-case scenario.

With the strengthening storm, the Storm Surge forecast has been increased and may be catastrophic for Tampa Bay and northward near Cedar Key with the projected landfall.

It is important to note that heavy rain, tornadoes, and storm surge can affect a larger area than the immediate eye wall at landfall.

In this report below, you will find the latest update, satellite loop, forecast maps, and interactive Windy Widget. I have a brief update on Hurricane Franklin as well since it will be affecting water for similar areas on the Atlantic coast.

National Hurricane Center Update 11 AM EST

• LOCATION…24.6N 84.8W
• ABOUT 120 MI…190 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
• ABOUT 275 MI…440 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH…140 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…976 MB…28.82 INCHES

Tropical IR Satellite Loop

Hurricane Force Winds extend 15 miles from the center

Tropical Storm Force Winds extend 160 miles from the center.

Visible Satellite Loop

The definition of the cloud tops can be seen better here. With the intensification, we may begin to see the center eye clear out by this evening.

Computer Model Forecast Tracks

The consensus has the storm make landfall before noon on Wednesday north of Tampa. The best estimate now is close to Cedar Key with the intensity of Category 3 or higher. Winds may be 115 mph to 130 mph.

Saffir Simpson Scale

Ranking of Categories Based On Wind Speed

Forecast Tracks: National Hurricane Center  Watches and Warnings

Watches and Warnings

This includes landfall in Florida AND the exit off the South Carolina coast.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…

* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* Isle of Youth Cuba

* Dry Tortugas Florida

* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key

* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

* Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…

* Chokoloskee northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour

* Mouth of the St. Mary’s River to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

* Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge

* South Santee River northward to Surf City, North Carolina

Storm Surge Map And Details

• Aucilla River, FL to Yankeetown, FL…10-15 ft
• Yankeetown to Chassahowitzka, FL…7-11 ft
• Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL…6-9 ft
• Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL…6-9 ft
• Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL…4-7 ft
• Tampa Bay…4-7 ft
• Carrabelle, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL…4-7 ft
• Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL…3-5 ft
• Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL…2-4 ft
• Charlotte Harbor…2-4 ft
• Indian Pass, FL to Carrabelle, FL…3-5 ft
• Mouth of the St. Mary’s River to South Santee, SC…2-4 ft
• South Santee, SC to Surf City, NC…1-3 ft
• Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL…1-3 ft
• Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary’s River…1-3 ft
• Indian Pass to Mexico Beach…1 to 3 ft.
• Florida Keys…1-2 ft

Storm Surge Potential

Tampa Bay may reach historic levels, and the slosh model has projected what 4 to 7 feet of water could mean for the city.

Over near Westgate and Tampa International, water could surge up some of the local waterways leading to surge inundating those west of the Veterans Expressway.

Notice that the worst case scenario also suggests some surge to inundate part of the runway system at Tampa… pic.twitter.com/m9sc23XoK1

— Zach Covey ❎ (@ZachCoveyTV) August 28, 2023

HAFS-A Model Forecast

Tuesday Afternoon to Friday Afternoon

This includes the exiting Hurricane Franklin. Hurricane Idalia will reach the same region where Franklin ‘was’, but they will NOT be there at the same time.

Wave Forecast

This snapshot on Thursday shows where Franklin will be in the Central Atlantic while Idalia will be departing the coast of South and North Carolina. Waves will average 4 to 6 Ft up to Ocean City, MD.

Windy Widget

Rainfall Forecast Through Friday

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, southeast Georgia, and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches are possible, primarily near landfall in northern Florida.

Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday.

EARLIER THIS MONTH:  Maryland Trek 10 For These Kids

I will have a follow-up and recap on our amazing week shortly.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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