August 14, 2023
Monday Morning Update
It seems like we just did this last Monday. The atmosphere is set up to bring another round of storms today that may turn severe. A nearly stalled boundary will allow Low Pressure to track to the east and reach central Maryland during prime time. That is Mid Afternoon and Evening when peak heat and humidity will fuel storms to reach severe levels.
There is a broad area for that potential today, then tomorrow the focus will push to Southern Maryland, Delmarva, and the Beaches. The rest of the week is expected to be sunny and uneventful.
The outlook today has a broad region, including all of Maryland in Level 2: Slight Risk. This means there will be widespread storms and some, NOT ALL, may turn severe. The potential is for:
Compare the Live Radar Widget to the Simulations below.
Low Pressure will be moving east along a nearly stalled boundary. There is a chance a mesoscale circulation (more localized Low Pressure) forms along the front. This is what can enhance the severe storm risk later today.
The timing will cross central Maryland mid to late afternoon with maximum heat and humidity. This is why we expect elevated storm risk and severe potential. The chance for high winds, hail, and tornadoes will be between 3 PM and 8 PM.
This will become more active mid-afternoon through evening… Compare to the model simulations below.
I still have low confidence in the fine-tuned accuracy of these models lately. They are a guide and simply that. I have noticed that we have often seen storms erupt a little earlier, track a little faster, and become more widespread than shown here.
Compare these different solutions with the LIVE Radar Widget above.
I wanted to highlight the Meso-Low. This is a more concentrated circulation that can enhance severe storms. It is smaller than the broader Synoptic Scale (Red L) you may see on the weather map. It can force more rotation in storm cells and push a squall line ahead of it.
This is more robust.
This may be undercutting the potential with only an isolated cell.
Most areas will be near seasonal norms under plenty of sunshine.
Normal Low in Baltimore: 67ºF
Record 51ºF in 1961
Normal High in Baltimore: 87ºF
Record 99ºF 1985
EXPLORE MORE
2023 Hurricane Season Forecast With An El Niño Watch
The slow-moving storm system will be pushing closer to the coast, bringing the heightened chance for storms across the Eastern Shore and beaches.
The focus for the severe storms will be today, then shifting to the Delmarva and the beaches tomorrow. The rest of the week is looking quiet and sunny.
I will have a follow-up and recap on our amazing week shortly.
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor that can check my work when I needed it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.
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