June 18, 2023
Sunday Morning Update
Happy Father’s Day. We are in a drought, but we can escape the desire for rain today as it is not possible for us. I should mention the caution with BBQs and Fire Pits.
This has been a rare cool spring for us, and we have only had one day in the 90s. We may get there today or tomorrow. Then we get back to seasonal levels.
High Pressure has carved out dry weather and sunshine for most of our region. That old storm is still affecting eastern New England, while a persistent rainy pattern continues across the Southeast US
Record Heat has been building but is isolated to South Texas.
To our north, there is still some smoke from Canada breaching the Great Lakes.
We saw some of that yesterday, and we may still have periods of smoke invade our way turning the blue sky to milky white.
This is nothing like we saw last week, but there are some pockets of smoke trying to move through aloft.
A very light wind will allow the sun and summer heat to be felt.
The suggestion here is that Baltimore will be close to 90ºF at BWI, which would be only the second time this year.
Most of the region east and north will be in the 80s, while the heat will be around Washington and Northern Virginia.
Normal Low in Baltimore: 64ºF
Record 48ºF in 1959
Normal High in Baltimore: 85ºF
Record 97ºF 1957
This may bring 90-degree temps to Baltimore (at BWI). We have only had one day in the 90s, so it would be a rarity this season.
This model showed a surprise this morning. I am not sure what it grabbed onto, but it is showing the northern edge of rain reaching Maryland Mid Week. I am very cautious and suspicious about this. I am showing you the small optimist option, but compare it to the GFS Model below and you will see why there is a lot of doubt in the near-term about rain locally.
This shows the same thinking we had yesterday. That wet pattern suppressed to the south.
I am leaning towards the lower risk for rain but wanted to keep a little chance midweek just in case the NAM 12 KM Model is on to something.
Overall, our drought conditions will worsen, but we do not have any heat waves in sight.
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos, and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor that can check my work when I needed it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos, when she is able. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.
#FITF
