May 28 Rain Already At The Beaches And Slowly Pushing North

May 28, 2023

Sunday Morning Update

Today is one of those days when the weather headline does NOT apply to our entire region. This makes it difficult to explain the wide range of weather across our region.

Today is also one of those days when I do not trust the short-range computer model guidance. Rain has already shown up on the radar and is more expansive than forecast. So it will be difficult to pin down how far the rain may reach. If you live near or north of the Pennsylvania line, you will stay dry.

However, closer to Annapolis and Baltimore there may be some wet weather. Not a washout, but a chance for some brief rain showers.

Temperatures at 7 AM

Morning Surface Weather

The coastal storm has advanced north to the South Carolina coast. The washout remains for the Carolinas AND has now reached Ocean City, Maryland. There is a tight gradient between this storm and High Pressure in Pennsylvania. This will increase the winds FROM the East and also lead to a sharp cutoff of the rain.

How far north this reaches is the tough call today. A better chance for rain south of Annapolis, but there may be some showers that reach into the state capital and metro Baltimore at times. Brief showers, not a washout.

Radar Snapshot at 7 AM

Live Radar Widget

Radar Simulation

I DO NOT TRUST THIS TODAY!

Considering that we have already seen more rain across southern Maryland than the model guidance has shown this morning, we can extrapolate a little more will reach inland. How far north is the wild card.

Suggestions: Showers may reach Annapolis and perhaps Baltimore later today.

Wind Forecast

The slower-moving storm may hold the stronger winds farther south. That will help the weather ‘hold’ inland and north. However, it will still be windy, chilly, and wet across southern Maryland and along the beaches.

Snapshot at 4 PM

Afternoon Temperatures

With the slow progress of that storm, there will be a delay of the east winds, thicker clouds, and rain farther inland and north. So temps may reach the 70s near and north of Baltimore. However, the cooler temps will be as expected, farther south and along the beaches.

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY May 28

Normal Low in Baltimore:  57ºF

Record 38ºF in 1961

Normal High in Baltimore: 78ºF

Record 97ºF 1941

Memorial Day Monday

Wind Forecast 8 AM to 8 PM

With that storm system getting closer, our winds should increase from the east.

Afternoon Snapshot

Winds will be FROM THE EAST 10 to 20 mph.

Temperatures should stay cool.

Morning

Afternoon

Rain Forecast: Monday Morning To Wednesday Afternoon

The remains of that storm system will be slowly moving through and keep the risk of rain in place for a few days. More than likely it will pulse with more activity during the afternoons.

7 Day Forecast

Once this slow-moving storm system gets here, it may linger for a few days. We will more likely have periods of rain, not a full washout.. but for a few days.

We can still expect a return of summer heat by the end of the work week.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos, and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor that can check my work when I needed it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos, when she is able. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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