April 6 Severe Storm Risk Later Today

April 6, 2023

Thursday Morning

We remain in the summer heat for yet another day.  Yesterday, many areas tied or set new record high temperatures. Baltimore’s BWI hit 84ºF, matching the mark set in the 2010 record heat wave.  This date, April 6th that same year surged to 90ºF. That tied the mark set in 1929. While it may get close, today is likely to stay in the 80s, which is still more than 20 degrees above average.

The break with come with a cold front and developing thunderstorms. Given the energy and time of day, we do have a risk for supercells turning severe. That is why the Orioles season home opener was postponed until tomorrow.

Morning Temperatures

A very warm start to the day. This suggests the energy is available and will increase with the surge of 80s today.

Severe Storm Risk

Potential for storms to produce damaging wind, large hail, and isolated tornadoes.

• Marginal Risk: Central Maryland
• Slight Risk: Southern Maryland

Supercell Composite

The chance for storms to turn severe will be in southern Maryland to the Lower Eastern Shore. See the timing in the simulations below.

Morning Surface Weather

We start in a summer like environment, but spring is on the other side of that cold front. That is the focus for the energy clash and expanding storm development. This is expected to reach our region mid to late afternoon.

Afternoon Temperatures

These numbers will be more than 20 degrees above average and feed into developing storms.

Radar Simulations

Note that these products are NOT perfect. Simply a suggestion. Please consider a buffer of 1 to 2 hours around the timeline plots for when storms may reach your areas.

This does look like a late afternoon and evening time frame.

HRRR Model 2 PM to 9 PM

Snapshot: 5 PM

Snapshot: 7 PM

NAM 3 Km Model: Noon to Midnight

Snapshot: 7 PM

This is about 2 hours later than the HRRR Model timing.

Snapshot: 9 PM

This is about 2 hours later than the HRRR Model timing.

Amazing Tornado Intercept Video This Week

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY April 6

Normal Low in Baltimore:  40ºF

Record 24ºF in 2016

SNOW: 0.5” in 1926

Normal High in Baltimore: 63ºF

Record 90ºF in 2010 and 1929

If You Missed It

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REPORTS:

Winter 2023 Recap: My BUSTED Snow Outlook

La Niña Has Ended. El Niño May Return By Fall

Friday Morning Temperatures

Friday Afternoon

It will be chilly for the Orioles Home Opener.

7 Day Forecast

The active weather today will be followed by a few days with cooler temps and more clouds. We should break out Easter Sunday and then have a stretch of sunny and warm weather next week.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos, and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss.

I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:

I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct!

I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect predicting the future.

All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor that can check my work when I needed it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos, when she is able. That could be AFTER you read this.

I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…

It’s part of my charm.

#FITF