March 10 Mix To Rain Today Flurries Tomorrow And Colder Storm Monday

March 10, 2023

Friday Morning

This is our winter pattern and it’s a little late. However, it is lining up exactly on time as La Niña has been declared officially over. We talked about this back in December and now we are watching the weather trying to catch up.

The problem is that temperatures are just above freezing AND we have a higher sun angle. So as snow or a mix arrives this morning, the local roads will be just wet. If you are in the metro or bay areas, this will be mostly rain… However, you could end with flurries or a snow shower tomorrow.

This pattern will attempt to produce a stronger and colder storm Sunday night into Monday. So we still have stuff to talk about.

Morning Temperatures

This is the lead of important data. There are some freezing spots, but most of our region has numbers above freezing (32ºF). It might help to know that if you are traveling to western Maryland or central Pennsylvania that is where this snow may be a problem.

Note:  Temperatures may drop a few degrees as the precipitation begins.

Morning Surface Weather

This storm system will be arriving today then redevelop with a Coastal Storm on Saturday.

We are on the edge of snow and mix beginning on the north side of Baltimore. The local roads will be wet, and those areas will turn to all rain. Most metro areas will get a chilly rain, but perhaps a brief start with some snow or sleet.

When Will This Start?

Mostly likely by 10 AM. Flurries have shown up on radar before 6 AM, but are not reaching the ground. It could break out any time.

ECMWF Model Summary 7 AM to 10 AM

This shows the leading edge with snow or sleet near and north of Baltimore. Rain is more likely south of I-70.

Radar Simulation

7 AM Fri to 7 AM Sat

Note that whatever this may start as, it will turn to rain, then we could get a return of snow or flurries dropping south on Saturday morning.

Temperatures

Noon –

The freezing temps will be confined to the higher mountains. Far western Maryland may get above freezing today, but then turn colder and snowy tonight.

Afternoon

Safely ABOVE freezing but a chilly rain with mid 30s to mid 40s.

My Original Call Still Holds

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY March 10

Normal Low in Baltimore:  32ºF

Record 11ºF in 1996

SNOW: 8.0” in 1892

Normal High in Baltimore: 53ºF

Record 80ºF in 2016

REPORT: March Snow and Extreme Weather History

March Snow and Extreme Weather History

Saturday Morning NAM 3 Km

At this time the Coastal Storm will be cranking. The strength and proximity to the coast will determine whether or not it can pull snow showers down into Maryland.

Storm Forecast Total

Morning Temperatures

The freezing line will be approaching from the west. If there is snow early in the day, there may be some coating on the grassy areas.

Afternoon Temperatures

Wind Forecast 7 AM to 7 PM

The result of that coastal Low forming will be strong gusty winds from the north.

Jumping To Monday: Colder Winter Storm?

ECMWF Storm Animation Sunday 7 PM to Tuesday 7 PM

Snapshot Monday Morning

It is hard to ignore this plot from the European Model. If you love snow, this is nearly IDEAL! However, I must remain suspicious and expect adjustments of the timing and track.

This does look like a colder and stronger storm, and March is the month of mischief, so stand by.

7 Day Forecast

I forecast for the region AND it will be COLDER NORTH AND WEST.

We are in an active pattern, so keep in touch for updates on that Monday system.

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IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

My REALISTIC Expectations for the COLD OUTLOOK

Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts

See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.

RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos, and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss.

I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:

I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct!

I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect predicting the future.

All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor that can check my work when I needed it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos, when she is able. That could be AFTER you read this.

I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…

It’s part of my charm.

#FITF

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

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My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out. https://justinweather.com/2022/11/22/winter-outlook-2023-for-snow-not-typical-la-nina-plus-polar-vortex-disruption/

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

https://justinweather.com/2022/11/20/atmospheric-memory-suggests-active-winter-storm-pattern-outlook/

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/21/winter-outlook-2023-from-noaa-very-different-than-farmers-almanacs/

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. https://justinweather.com/2022/08/31/record-august-for-no-named-tropical-storms-closer-look-at-snow-following/

Woolly Bear Caterpillars

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/25/winter-weather-outlook-from-the-wooly-bear-caterpillar/

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/28/winter-weather-folklore-top-20-and-more-outlook-signals-from-nature-for-cold-and-snow/

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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