Snow On Friday Gaining More Support: My Practical Look With Latest Winning Model In The Lead

Tuesday Night March 7 2023

The potential for a March snow after a relatively snowless winter has been met with dismissal, disdain, and plain disgust. I get it! If you have been reading my reports, I have taken the line to downplay and doubt the computer model guidance. Yet I have already made the case to always keep an open mind in March. We have a history of many surprisingly impressive late winter events.

I do not enjoy my low confidence and uncertainty, but need to be practical with you. With that in mind, I have presented my suggestion (a hypotheses if you will), that the recent snow in Pennsylvania would be important to follow. The Computer Model that performed the best calling that snow would lead the pack for the next event. I was surprised this happened to be the GFS Model given how many losses it has had to the Euro.

So here we are 3 Days away from a possible winter event and I need to stick with my call and lead with the GFS. So here we go:

I want to show the upper level support first. But before we look at the surface snow plots, I MUST share my doubts to keep it real:

Jet Stream 500mb Height Anomalies

7 AM Friday to 1 PM Saturday

Snapshot Saturday Morning

This is a good set up for a Coastal Storm to form.

This is NOT ideal for the Mid Atlantic. The Upper Low passing NORTH of Baltimore would tend to bring in warmer air and any chance for snow would shift north.

If you want snow, you would root on that track to cross near or south of Baltimore. That is the trend to look for over the next few model runs.

Realistic DOUBT About Snowfall In March

1. Snow falling during the day has more hindrance to stick with the higher March sun angle.
2. The ground will have a few nights of freezing temps to chill, but will still have plenty of latent warmth.
3. The track of the Low in Pennsylvania can often result the mountains breaking up the moisture OR simply pushing in warmer air and rain for central Maryland.
4. The bias of this model (among others) all winter has been to plot storms farther South, then they verify North.

If you want snow, you want the track farther south than shown here. If this ends up north, it would diminish snow chances.

Finally: This is favorable for inland areas AWAY from the Chesapeake Bay and in the higher hills.  It does not favor urban, coastal, or Delmarva locations.

GFS Model Forecast

7 AM Friday to 7 AM Saturday

Snapshots

4 PM Friday

We see the arrival of snow into central Maryland to include the mountains and southern PA. It would arrive late morning to midday…. AND this shows rain most likely near and South of I-95 to the coast.

Snow areas would be confronted by the warm ground and daylight. We can get stickage in March, it just takes more intense snowfall to overtake the warm ground.

10 PM Friday Night

With the track to our north across Pennsylvania, this would bring in warmer air, turning any snow or mix to rain across central Maryland to southern PA.

A raging snowstorm would continue in the mountains of Western Maryland and Central Pennsylvania.

Roundtop Ski area is still open and this may help extend the season.

7 AM Saturday Morning

The Coastal Low cranks south of Rhode Island. At this point the upper and surface air flow all would be from the North and bring colder air back into place. The back edge snow showers would end the storm for us, but the precipitation is usually light on this side and distance from the surface Low.

Compare to…

Canadian GEM Model

This is similar to the GFS, but slightly farther North and warmer.

European ECMWF Model

This is a slower solution that arrives later in the day and at night.

We see more snow expanding into southern Maryland. Part of the reasoning here is that late hour, AFTER sunset. It still does NOT promote stickage or accumulation.

Take Away

• This is still NOT set in stone, but there has been both consistency and multiple models on board. So we must give this more credit.
• I would NOT endorse any snow totals for the reasons I stated above.
• I would also still remain cautious and look for a late bump to the north when this arrives.
• The GFS is the latest winner, so I will present that model each day and compare snips of the others. With that in mind, there is more energy in the pipeline for early next week.

Jet Stream Friday March 10 to Wednesday March 15

The ‘Ides of March’ may very well have us locked in a late winter pattern. I will remain prudent and do not promise another storm (although I’ve shown the Euro suggesting that). However, I do believe this reinforces the notion for a Colder March.

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IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

My REALISTIC Expectations for the COLD OUTLOOK

Also See:

Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts

See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.

RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos, and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss.

I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:

I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct!

I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect predicting the future.

All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor that can check my work when I needed it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos, when she is able. That could be AFTER you read this.

I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…

It’s part of my charm.

#FITF

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

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My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out. https://justinweather.com/2022/11/22/winter-outlook-2023-for-snow-not-typical-la-nina-plus-polar-vortex-disruption/

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

https://justinweather.com/2022/11/20/atmospheric-memory-suggests-active-winter-storm-pattern-outlook/

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/21/winter-outlook-2023-from-noaa-very-different-than-farmers-almanacs/

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. https://justinweather.com/2022/08/31/record-august-for-no-named-tropical-storms-closer-look-at-snow-following/

Woolly Bear Caterpillars

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/25/winter-weather-outlook-from-the-wooly-bear-caterpillar/

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/28/winter-weather-folklore-top-20-and-more-outlook-signals-from-nature-for-cold-and-snow/

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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