February 18, 2023
Saturday Morning
Talk about atmospheric memory, we have a pattern on repeat. It seems like we have our brief spurt of winter on Saturdays, only to turn mild within a day or two. Mid week rain, a surge of warm air, then turning cold again to start the next weekend.
We have that again. This time, the warm surge will approach one of the oldest records we have maintained, then a hint of winter next weekend. I remain very skeptical of the extended forecast, but I will show you below.
It may seem exceptional, but these numbers below freezing are seasonally cold. This is where we belong!
High Pressure dominates the Eastern US. Often while is it cold on one side, it is very warm on the other. We will get into that warm up quickly after today. 
Normal Low in Baltimore: 27ºF
Record 3ºF in 1979
SNOW: 5.7” in 1964
Normal High in Baltimore: 47ºF
Record 75ºF 1976
In 1976, Baltimore had a 2-day Warm Wave of Record High Temps.
THEN ON MARCH 9, 1976
Report: Tracking Winds For Movement from the accident to the Controlled Burn Also see Videos Of Toxins in local water in East Palestine, OH.
REPORT: Chesapeake Bay and Ohio Watersheds. Please click here for that report if you missed it.
Not as cold. Freezing is normal but it will be limited as the cold air retreats north again.
This will be close to a seasonal day. The theme we have had all winter has been these cold shots only lasting for a day or two. Most have been on a Saturday.
It doesn’t always snow, and definitely not this year! We may have scattered rain showers with the mild temps in the 50s.
A strong Ridge will build AGAIN in the Eastern US later in the week. This will surge in very warm temperatures.
This strong ridge will surge in the warmest air of the year to date. It is VERY LIKELY we will reach the mid to upper 70s. There is a chance we get a record high temperature that day, and remain in the 70s on Friday before the next abrupt change… for another colder weekend.
This is the European Model showing rain showers and a storm track to our north. This will bring some wintry weather to northern New England.
Saturday: We may see a period of snow or wintry mix. Note that the GFS Model is much colder with more snow, that may be showing on some of your weather apps. I do NOT buy it. We have had too many of these ‘one week away’ snow storms that trend north and don’t materialize.
You know I love snow, but I cannot bite on this yet.
This pattern is on repeat: We seem to get one cold day on the weekend, then some mid-week rain and a VERY WARM day, only to be followed by another cold day.
These spurts of winter seem to last one to two days and have often bottomed out on a Saturday.
Next weekend is worth watching, but I won’t get too excited yet.
The Record High on Thursday is within reach. 
After our chilly day, we will get mild again. The big warm up will be Thursday as temperatures will approach one of the oldest records on the books.
It was 78ºF in 1874 on Feb 23. That is the mark to watch! We often end up warmer than models forecast.
Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts
See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school 
I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out. https://justinweather.com/2022/11/22/winter-outlook-2023-for-snow-not-typical-la-nina-plus-polar-vortex-disruption/
Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. https://justinweather.com/2022/08/31/record-august-for-no-named-tropical-storms-closer-look-at-snow-following/
https://justinweather.com/2022/10/25/winter-weather-outlook-from-the-wooly-bear-caterpillar/
