February 14 Mild Valentine’s Day And Warming Up Again

February 14 2023

Tuesday Morning

Today is Love Day in the middle of Love Week as my wife calls it. I know she, along with many others are loving this weather, and here we go again! There is hardly any cold air in sight in this winter without a winter (for us).

Valentine’s Day will be sunny and mild, then we crank up the warmth ahead of another strong storm tracking well to our west. This is a case where we could overshoot the forecast high, which is why I am calling for a good chance to reach 70ºF at BWI tomorrow. That will not be a record, which was 77ºF in 1949, but it may feel like it.  Then we get a couple of days with rain to end the work week.

Headlines

• Today: Sunny and Mild Valentine’s Day
• Very Warm Tomorrow
• Rain Thursday and Friday
• Colder Start To The Weekend

Morning Temperatures

Many of these readings are close to a normal high for the date, but showing up before sunrise.

There are a few pockets of lower 30s, so you might find frost on the windshield in those areas.

Morning Surface Weather

High Pressure has most of the Eastern US under a clear sky with light wind.  The breeze will pick up and shift from the South ahead of the next storm. That will be our warming trend.

That storm will bring snow to the Northern Plains and an outbreak of severe weather across the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys tomorrow and Thursday.

Afternoon Temperatures

Most of the region will be back into the 50s.

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY February 14

Normal Low in Baltimore:  26ºF

Record -2ºF in 1979

SNOW: 4.0” in 1986

Normal High in Baltimore: 46ºF

Record 70ºF 1990

Wednesday

Morning

Most areas will be near normal afternoon (!) highs before sunrise.

Afternoon

Storm Forecast

GFS Model: Thursday Morning To Saturday Morning

There is not much to say other than the storm track is proving a locked in atmospheric memory pattern: Through the Great Lakes.

This is what will pump in the warmer air for us, followed by a brief chill.

Jet Stream

Through Sunday Night

The wind flow aloft shows the warm East and colder West!  When we get some chill, it does not last long. Temps will be falling all Friday, then bottom out on Saturday, only to bounce back with more mild air on Sunday.

This is the theme we have had this winter. There is plenty of cold air, it just is having trouble getting here. Once it does, it does not stay long.

NOAA OUTLOOK

Warm AGAIN for the next 10 days… Then we may break this non-winter pattern by the end of the month.

Click here to see the FULL REPORT.

7 Day Forecast

The rain storm could bring some thunder Thursday night into Friday morning. Then temps will be much colder. Friday’s high will be in the morning, then temps will fall all day.

The weekend will be colder, but once again that cold winter ‘near normal’ only lasts about 1 day!

Also See:

Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts

See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.

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STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.

https://justinweather.com/2022/11/22/winter-outlook-2023-for-snow-not-typical-la-nina-plus-polar-vortex-disruption/

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

https://justinweather.com/2022/11/20/atmospheric-memory-suggests-active-winter-storm-pattern-outlook/

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/25/winter-weather-outlook-from-the-wooly-bear-caterpillar/

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/28/winter-weather-folklore-top-20-and-more-outlook-signals-from-nature-for-cold-and-snow/

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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