February 8, 2023
Wednesday Morning
Scattered rain showers fell overnight, but the afternoon will turn sunny and mild. There is no doubt that we will be continuing a warm stretch into next week. However, a blip this weekend will bring a coastal storm on Super Bowl Sunday.
There are several reasons I have been paying so much attention to this system:
The cold front that brought rain showers overnight, will continue to move and let High Pressure build in. This will allow for a clearing sky.
To our south, a very active storm pattern will persist, and be the foundation for the ‘blip’ expected this weekend.
Not much cold air to be found and there will be a noticeable warm up today.
Very mild, and often we see numbers warmer than the models suggest.
Normal Low in Baltimore: 26ºF
Record -1ºF in 1967
SNOW: 6.3” 1974
Normal High in Baltimore: 45ºF
Record 72ºF 2017
Rain showers will return. They will be scattered, but not necessarily heavy.
Most of the region will be back in the 50s or warmer. The 60s will be close, and depending on the track of showers, I expected we may see them reaching metro Baltimore. BWI often runs warmer and I will place that location above 60 degrees.
This snapshot of the jet stream shows the reason for the small, colder coastal storm. This location is the key to the track coming back in line for our Mid Atlantic region.
The main storm track will be to the Great Lakes. This is why we remain on the warm and wet side.
It’s the upper level Low tracking across the south to the Carolina’s that will produce the ‘blip’ coastal storm Sunday.
Comparing this European Model to the GFS Model
The Euro was too far south yesterday, and I wrote that I thought it was coming back north. It has, and expresses a slushy snow inland.
The GFS Model has had a better handle on this (and did with last week’s little snow event). Here we see that surface Low farther north. As a result, there is a larger and longer coverage of winter precipitation.
Watch that southern system come back NORTH and expand the winter precipitation.
Pink = Icy mix of sleet and snow. Blue = snow.
Temps will likely be marginally near freezing, so this would be a slushy and wet snow.
Once again, this will be on Super Bowl Sunday, so pay attention for updates on impact for travel. Temps will be near freezing, but roads likely to remain warm. A heavy wet snow can lead to slush on roads if intense enough. The timing in the evening does support that as a legitimate chance.
Friday Night to Tuesday
The warm pattern has this only cluster of colder air with the closed Low. After it passes through, next week will warm up again and Valentines Day may approach 60ºF.
The pattern will continue to be warmer than average. Winter is having trouble showing up, but there is one blip that we see on Sunday.
Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts
See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.
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I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.
Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.
Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following
Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow
