February 8 Warm Pattern And Blip Slushy Snow Super Bowl Sunday

February 8, 2023

Wednesday Morning

Scattered rain showers fell overnight, but the afternoon will turn sunny and mild. There is no doubt that we will be continuing a warm stretch into next week. However, a blip this weekend will bring a coastal storm on Super Bowl Sunday.

There are several reasons I have been paying so much attention to this system:

1. Highlighting the computer guidance error. It pushed too far south yesterday, and has come back north similar to last week’s little snow.
2. It is potential ‘slushy’ snow in a warm week.
3. It will be on Super Bowl Sunday and may affect travel to parties.

Morning Surface Weather

The cold front that brought rain showers overnight, will continue to move and let High Pressure build in. This will allow for a clearing sky.

To our south, a very active storm pattern will persist, and be the foundation for the ‘blip’ expected this weekend.

Morning Temperatures

Not much cold air to be found and there will be a noticeable warm up today.

Afternoon Temperatures

Very mild, and often we see numbers warmer than the models suggest.

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY February 8

Normal Low in Baltimore:  26ºF

Record -1ºF in 1967

SNOW: 6.3” 1974

Normal High in Baltimore: 45ºF

Record 72ºF 2017

Thursday Weather

Radar Simulation: 7 AM to 7 PM

Rain showers will return. They will be scattered, but not necessarily heavy.

Thursday Morning Temperatures

Thursday Afternoon Temperatures

Most of the region will be back in the 50s or warmer. The 60s will be close, and depending on the track of showers, I expected we may see them reaching metro Baltimore. BWI often runs warmer and I will place that location above 60 degrees.

Blip Of Winter On Sunday

This snapshot of the jet stream shows the reason for the small, colder coastal storm. This location is the key to the track coming back in line for our Mid Atlantic region.

Storm Track: ECMWF Model

Thursday Night to Tuesday – Valentines Day

The main storm track will be to the Great Lakes. This is why we remain on the warm and wet side.

It’s the upper level Low tracking across the south to the Carolina’s that will produce the ‘blip’ coastal storm Sunday.

Snap Shot Comparison Sunday Night

10 PM Sunday

Comparing this European Model to the GFS Model

The Euro was too far south yesterday, and I wrote that I thought it was coming back north. It has, and expresses a slushy snow inland.

The GFS Model has had a better handle on this (and did with last week’s little snow event). Here we see that surface Low farther north. As a result, there is a larger and longer coverage of winter precipitation.

GFS Model Focus – Mid Atlantic

1 PM SAT to 1 AM MON

Watch that southern system come back NORTH and expand the winter precipitation.

Pink = Icy mix of sleet and snow.  Blue = snow.

Temps will likely be marginally near freezing, so this would be a slushy and wet snow.

NOTES:

Once again, this will be on Super Bowl Sunday, so pay attention for updates on impact for travel. Temps will be near freezing, but roads likely to remain warm. A heavy wet snow can lead to slush on roads if intense enough. The timing in the evening does support that as a legitimate chance.

Jet Stream Animation:

Friday Night to Tuesday

The warm pattern has this only cluster of colder air with the closed Low. After it passes through, next week will warm up again and Valentines Day may approach 60ºF.

7 Day Forecast

The pattern will continue to be warmer than average. Winter is having trouble showing up, but there is one blip that we see on Sunday.

Also See:

Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts

See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.

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STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.

https://justinweather.com/2022/11/22/winter-outlook-2023-for-snow-not-typical-la-nina-plus-polar-vortex-disruption/

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

https://justinweather.com/2022/11/20/atmospheric-memory-suggests-active-winter-storm-pattern-outlook/

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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