January 25 Wintry Mix North: Snow Timeline And Profile Maps

January 25 2023

Wednesday Morning Report

The storm today is potent! It will bring snow to a large area of the US, many for the first time this season. Metro Baltimore and the Mid Atlantic will once again be on the edge and mostly rain. We still need to consider the inland suburbs that will get a thump of snow briefly at the start.

If you are in the snow zone locally, the most likely timing is between 9 AM and Noon. If you see snow, stay put and it will melt and turn to all rain this afternoon. What we really need are temps in the upper 20s to near 30ºF for a decent snow event.  With the recent mild weather and barely at freezing, it will take a burst of snow to overwhelm the ground and stick.

Please see my new Profile Map and Forecast Models that help explain the situation.

Headlines

• Today: Thump of Snow INLAND 9 AM to Noon
• Brief Stickage Inland
• Rain Cities: T’Storm This Evening

Winter Weather Advisory:

Frederick MD/westward; Southern Pennsylvania!

At this point, the arrival may be 9 AM to Noon, limiting any impact.  The urban and southern areas are likely to be mostly rain, but could get some mix at the very start.

Traveling Snow Profiles

Local: Maryland 140

Northwest of Baltimore to northern Frederick County

Interstate 70 to 68

Between Baltimore Beltway and Garrett County MD

Morning Temperatures

There are colder pockets surrounding these main locations. See the spotlight on Carroll County, MD below.

Local Focus: Carroll County, MD

That Westminster location is deceiving as many areas surrounding the county in all directions are still below freezing.

Morning Surface Weather

Snow has shown up on local radar already in the hills, but not reaching the ground yet.

This is a Winter Storm entity, even if we miss out on the snow. Plenty will fall in the Ohio Valley, Central PA, and New England.

Severe storms will erupt across the Southeast US.

Temperatures at 11 AM

I chose this arbitrary time to highlight the mild trend. So with snow falling, many areas in that zone will be above 32ºF.

A heavy snow THUMP can briefly overtake a warm ground, but patience will allow melting.

Snow/Rain Tracking

Canadian GEM Model

This shows the arrival locally between 10 AM and 1 PM

We still should apply a buffer of 1 to 2 hours for model error (slow)

10 AM

1 PM

Snow/Rain Tracking

European ECMWF Model

This also shows the arrival locally between 10 AM and 1 PM

We still should apply a buffer of 1 to 2 hours for model error (slow)

10 AM

1 PM

HRRR Model

I’ve marked up the area where the product still suggests possible edge of snow (slushy).

NAM 3 m Model

12 PM- Noon

This is too late for the arrival in my opinion.

11 PM – Tonight

I chose this product to highlight since it does the best job suggesting the heavy rain and possible thunderstorms.

Evening Temperatures

Notice that metro areas area get into the 40s.

Eastern Shore gets into the 50s, with 60s nearby around Norfolk, VA.

Note:

Yesterday I highlighted the GFS Model with a rare win for timing the snow in Arkansas. Overall, this product is failing and I will limit sharing plots until the problems can be resolved.

Before we blame the ‘American Models’, the NAM 3 Km and HRRR Models are also American. Those are high resolution and best used in the short range for the day of, or even one day ahead.

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Climate Trivia

Latest Measurable Snow In Baltimore

Today Will Tie 3rd Latest

Feb 21 in 1973 (50 years ago)

Feb 6 in 1914 (109 years ago)

Jan 25 in 1992 ( 31 years ago)

Jan 25 in 1901 ( 122 years ago)

Jan 24 in 2023 (So Far Confirmed)

Jan 23 in 1966 (57 years ago)

Jan 21 in 1907 (116 years ago)

CLIMATE DATA

TODAY January 25

Normal Low in Baltimore:  25ºF

Record 0ºF in 1983

SNOW: 9.3” 1909

Normal High in Baltimore: 45ºF

Record 72ºF 1964

Friday Weather

Winds may gust over 40 mph

Temperatures

7 AM

Afternoon High Temperatures

7 Day Forecast

Brief disturbances will pass through Friday and Sunday, but nothing major in sight. We will continue to see mild weather, then look to the second week of February for the next ‘potential’ push of winter.

That is all the pattern shows us for now.

Also See:

Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts

See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.

Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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