January 2, 2023

Tuesday Morning Report

Today is a Federal Holiday, meaning a lot of people get a day off to enjoy yet another spring like afternoon. I am not going to suggest it’s perfect time to take down holiday lights, but it may be hard to get more days like this after mid week. 

Some rain will spread into the area Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by a return to seasonably cool temps this weekend. 

This is NOT the pattern change, as we may get mild again next week. But, the return to winter is inevitable.

Climate Notes:

On Sunday, BWI observed 64ºF for the high, not a record. 

Today, while we aim for the 60s again, the record high was 71ºF in 1876 (yes, 147 years ago). We are not likely to challenge that record today.

Headlines

• Days reach 60s Through Wednesday 
• Tuesday Showers, Wednesday Rain
• Colder Friday Through The Weekend

Morning Temperatures 

Surface Weather

3 PM Temperatures 

Note that we often end up warmer than models suggest in patterns like this. However, any wind from the water can hinder temps with natural refrigeration.

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY January 2

Normal Low in Baltimore:  27ºF

Record 0ºF in 1968

SNOW: 7.9” 1925

Normal High in Baltimore: 44ºF

Record 71ºF 1876

Polar Vortex Report

In case you missed this, I explain the stable circulation now and disruption forecast by mid January. Compare to 3 recent winters that were similar: Record warmth was followed by record snow.

Tuesday

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures

Rain Forecast: Radar Simulation 

8 AM to 3 PM

The first wave of rain showers will be more likely to the west and north of Baltimore (Frederick to York).  There may be some showers around Baltimore briefly mid to late afternoon. 

Storm Animation: Wednesday Through Friday

The large storm will be responsible for pumping warmer air in during the week. With that, we eventually get rain showers Tuesday afternoon and evening. This will culminate with heavy rain on Wednesday and perhaps some thunder. 

Jet Stream: Through January 15

This is a 2 week outlook, simply for trends. The one that jumps out to me is that after this week, we knock down the ridge in the east but it will take a few more impulses to reestablish winter. It will trend colder in the middle of the month. 

My Thoughts:

This return to winter will come in phases. This weekend will be a blip but not the pattern change.  I know I continue to point to Friday for some hint of winter, comparing two models trying to produce snow. I still believe the atmosphere will try to do something next weekend, but I doubt it will be impactful. If we get a surprise twist, I will share it.

Otherwise, the real change to winter is more likely for the middle and second half of this month. 

7 Day Forecast

This first half of the week will look like spring. After the mid week rain, and even a rumble of thunder on Wednesday, we return closer to average by the weekend. 

The snow chance next Friday (for now ) appears to be minimal, but the atmosphere is trying to produce some snow or rain showers over the weekend. 

Faith in the Flakes Gear

What is Faith in the Flakes?

It began with my son in 2009

December 5th Snow In Baltimore And The Start Of Faith In The Flakes FITF

SNOWSTIX – Available Now

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.

Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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