November 21 2022

Monday Morning Update 

We got the record in Baltimore on Sunday. The afternoon temperature at BWI did make it back to 38ºF, which tied as the coldest max temperature for the date. Now we get the benefits of a clear sky and light wind overnight enhancing the chill. Temps have dropped into the teens for many areas, including the airport at Ocean City.

The good news is the quiet weather pattern for a few days will allow for sunshine and mild afternoons. Thanksgiving may bring more clouds, ahead of that holiday weekend storm.  More on that below. 

Morning Surface Weather

These winds are the final push from this cold air mass.  These same winds are still producing Lake Effect Snow, however, they have shifted and the intensity is not the same as the last few days.

Morning Temps at 6 AM

Temperatures Afternoon

NEW REPORT:

Atmospheric Memory – Tracking storm patterns since the summer for hints of winter ahead.  It’s been busy here in the Mid Atlantic. 

Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook

CLIMATE DATA

TODAY November 21

Normal Low in Baltimore:  35ºF

Record 16ºF in 1951 

SNOW: Trace in 2008

Normal High in Baltimore: 55ºF

Record 79ºF 1900

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Tuesday Morning

Tuesday Afternoon 

Thanksgiving Storm Outlook

Your phone app may not show this as much with the GFS (American Model) losing sight of the storm. The European Model has been consistently showing the development. Despite my original report, this looks like mostly a rain event. There will be cold air aloft, resulting in mountain snow.  I do see the cold air possibly producing producing showers with wintry mix on Saturday….

ECMWF – European Model 

Friday Morning To Sunday Morning

Snapshot Saturday Morning 

The bulk of the storm will be north, however leftover high clouds remain. Rain is identified here, with snow in the mountains. Cloud level temps will be below freezing, so we could see a wintry mix of showers.

Snapshot Saturday Afternoon

Heavy snow in the mountains continues with a few more showers locally… Cloud level temps will be below freezing, so we could see a wintry mix of showers.

Rainfall Potential

The low rain pocket around the Bay with over 1/2 inch, however most of the region is expected over 1 inch of rain.

7 Day Forecast

Faith in the Flakes Gear

SNOWSTIX – Available Now

Also See: Winter Outlook Series:

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

ALSO, SEE THESE OTHER WINTER OUTLOOK REPORTS

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

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