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Top 10 Buffalo Lake Effect Snow Events Being Challenged Now
snow forecast
National Weather Service
climate data
Winter Weather
Warnings
November 17 2022
Thursday Update
The big weather event of the week is the expected historic Lake Effect Snow event for Buffalo. Cold air over the large body of water from Lake Erie (and the other Great Lakes) has been known to produce a few feet of snow in a few days. The city of Buffalo is a moderately sized metropolitan area that is situated on the northeast corner of Lake Erie and the precise wind direction can make or break where the heaviest snow piles up.
More on the forecast AND how lake effect snow forms below.
Records Being Challenged
Historically the Lake Effect Snow Bands have set up just south and east of Buffalo. Hitting the city hardest is rare, but has happened. Here are the top 10 events over three days.
Top 3-Day Snow Totals In Buffalo
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56.1” in 2001
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43.3” in 1995
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38.9” in 2000
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38.8” in 1976
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36.0” in 1975
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33.2” in 1985
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29.5” in 1982
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28.3” in 1984
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25.4” in 2001
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24.8” in 1961
Near Miss Historic Event: November 17 to 19 in 2014
It was exactly 8 years ago when a similar event formed, but the snow band was 10 miles away from downtown Buffalo.
- The band of snow was 15 to 20 miles wide.
- Snowfall rates (just east of Buffalo) were 3 to 5 inches per hour.
- Winds Gusted to 35 mph (blizzard conditions)
Wide Range In Short Distance
- Snow Total of 65 inches in South Cheektowaga.
- Snow Total 6.2 inches in Buffalo, less than 10 miles away!
Snow Already This Morning
Doppler Radar 8 AM to 10:30 PM
The snow that has been falling is NOT the main event. This has been with a Northwest Wind, piling snow south of the city.
National Weather Service Tweet:
This sets the tone for seriousness
Where the lake effect is the most intense and persistent, snow will be measured in feet, not inches. Travel within these bands will be extremely dangerous, if not impossible. This will especially be the case across the Buffalo Metro Friday and Friday night. pic.twitter.com/49mLsqLX6T
— NWS Buffalo (@NWSBUFFALO) November 16, 2022
Forecast Maps
The forecast shows the wind shift, which will swing to the West-Southwest. That is where the long fetch across Lake Erie will align to dump near or in Buffalo.
It is important to note that snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hours are possible. So if a band sits over the same area with little oscillation, that can easily bring 36” to 48” of snow.
Forecast Animations:
NAM 3 Km Model – 4 PM Thu to 7 PM Sun
GFS Model – 4 PM Thu to 7 PM Sun
Snow Model Forecast
The models often underplay the potential, so compare this to the local National Weather Service Office Map
WRF-FV3
National Weather Service Forecast
Sunday Football?
Orchard Park is where the Buffalo Bills play, which is south of Buffalo City. They have a home football game this Sunday against the Browns. Not only may snow still be falling, but they may be digging out from as much as 4 feet of the white stuff.
What is Lake Effect Snow?
The location of Great Lakes along the border of Canada and The United States is situated perfectly for the local weather phenomenon known as Lake Effect Snow. What is setting up now near Buffalo, NY may rival some of the top events. If nothing else, a few feet of snow expected would make this maybe the most since a similar November Lake Effect Snow Event in 2014.
From The National Weather Service:
”Winter has no plans for subtlety across the snowbelts of upstate NY! Multiple FEET of lake-effect snow are expected through this weekend across the region including the Buffalo and Watertown metro areas”
More on that event and current forecast below.
What Is Lake Effect Snow
Cold air from Canada blowing across the large bodies of fresh water allow for a ‘fetch’ to pick up moisture and develop a band of rain or snow downwind. In the winter, this can produce a narrow and very intense band of heavy snow which can include many inches per hour and even lightning and thunder. The results can pile up many FEET of snow in just a few days!
Narrow Bands
This photo from Buffalo looking out across Lake Erie shows a wall of snow in a band over the water. It is common to go from partly cloudy to white out conditions on the other side.
On a side note, this has happened before. During December 14-18, 1945. The airport measured nearly 37 inches, and in excess of 70 inches fell just 4-6 miles south (Lancaster).
See the full report for this event from The National Weather Service in Buffalo
Lake Effect Snow: Normal Years
Lake Effect snow is a way of life, where the cities such as Cleveland, Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse can range from 80 to over 110 inches of snow in a normal winter. Some of the outlying areas can average over 200 inches of snow, especially where the wind lines up routinely from the nearby lakes.
Side note: My first TV job was in Syracuse at WSTM. That city averages more snow, but Buffalo is a larger city and gets more press.
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Faith in the Flakes Gear
SNOWSTIX – Available Now
Also See: Winter Outlook Series:
Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs
ALSO, SEE THESE OTHER WINTER OUTLOOK REPORTS
Farmer’s Almanac Comparison
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
Triple Dip La Niña Winter
CONNECTION TO WINTER?
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).
Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following
Wooly Bear Caterpillars
Persimmon Seeds
Click to see Top 20 and MORE
Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow
Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History
STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school
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