Thursday November 17 2022

I want to start by saying I am going against my own policy to discuss this potential event.  Under normal circumstances, I would not mention a winter storm until within a one week time frame simply because there is so much variability. The odds of a storm playing out exactly with snow and ice as we see it 8 or 9 days away is unlikely. However, something is going to try and form based on the global circulation. More on that in a moment. 

Two other reasons I am bringing this to attention:

1. Buffalo and the historic Lake Effect Snow event has got people asking a lot of questions. So looking beyond snow showers tomorrow, the next event is a week away.
2. The other reason is because it is Thanksgiving weekend we are looking at.  Information may get lost in the holiday rush and I want to keep this on the back burner just for traveling plans. 

Let’s Keep In Touch

For the record, I am still working to finish my winter outlook. I got sidetracked with other work and the new bottleneck with Facebook reach.  Most public pages are having trouble getting to their audiences. If you want to guarantee to see my post updates, please subscribe to my email list here:

First: Flurries and Snow Showers Friday

This is a minor event that may cross central Maryland to Philadelphia late afternoon and evening.

NAM 3 Km Model 2 PM to 10 PM

Baltimore suburbs timing: 3 PM to 6 PM.

Now, let’s get to the good stuff:

Thanksgiving Weekend

North American Jet Stream

The European Model shows a closed Low in the North Atlantic, leading to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (-NAO).

This helps feed cold air and dig a deep trough for the eastern US.

USA View:

That deep trough would be responsible for colder air and a storm pattern. This does NOT promise the proper conditions, but it does support it.

European ECMWF Model 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM Sunday

We can see that trough develop Thanksgiving Day in the Southern Plains to Mid Atlantic on Friday.

GFS Model 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM Sunday

This model has a much stronger short wave and digs that trough resulting in a storm for the Mid Atlantic on Friday.

Storm Simulation 

I need to mention that the European Model does not develop a surface storm (at this time). I’ve actually seen the GFS Model perform better recently, so what I show below is worth consideration.

(GFS Model)

7 AM Fri Nov 25 to 7 AM Sun Nov 27

This looks like a Miller B set up with an arctic Low in the Mid-West shifting energy to a new Coastal Low.

I am keeping the wide view to keep this vague because I do expect changes over the next few days.

Snapshot: 7 PM Fri Nov 25

I picked the worse case scenario at this time, which would be Friday night.

This is NOT a forecast. It is a suggestion that many of us meteorologists will be watching.  In fact, this was the 12Z (Thursday morning forecast). The 18 Z (afternoon) run was less impressive, but the ‘off hour’ plots often waffle. It’s too early to take seriously but fun to watch. 

Note:

I will NOT hype this storm, and caution anyone who does. The Buffalo Lake Effect Snow will have our attention into the weekend and keep this is a side note.  More than likely some form of a storm will develop Thanksgiving weekend not exactly like this.  Stay tuned… Winter may try to start early. 

Lake Effect Snow Update

The National Weather Service UPPED the Snow Forecast.

See my Poll on Twitter below and join in to make the call.

Also See: Top 10 Buffalo Snow Events Being Challenged Now

You Make The Call

You make the call:
❄️ What will the TOP snow total be for this #LakeEffectSnow Event?

— Justin Berk (@JustinWeather) November 18, 2022

Faith in the Flakes Gear

SNOWSTIX – Available Now

Also See: Winter Outlook Series:

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

ALSO, SEE THESE OTHER WINTER OUTLOOK REPORTS

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

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