November 15, 2022

Tuesday Morning Update 

Cold air has settled in this morning, including the first freeze for portions of Delmarva. It’s the area inland with the 20s that is significant with the approach of the next weather system.  With clouds moving in early and trapping the cold air, there will be a burst of snow and sleet for many areas inland during the afternoon and evening. 

I do not want you to be caught off guard with this first winter event.  There is a Winter Weather Advisory for far western Maryland and interior Pennsylvania. However, there will be frozen stuff falling in the nearby suburbs of Baltimore. 

The roads should remain wet and I will highlight those areas in this post. 

Headlines:

• Rain, Sleet, and Snow arrive for most After 1 PM
• Burst of Sleet and Snow: NW Suburbs of Baltimore into the evening
• Snow Burst and road stickage WEST of I-81
• Tonight: Turning to all rain, ending before sunrise

Morning Temps 

• Quite a few freezing temps observed on Delmarva.
• Check out the 20s inland. 

Winter Weather Alerts:

Freeze Warning: Delmarva will give it another try after not getting to 32ºF Monday morning.

Winter Weather Advisory: Some stickage may affect travel on I-68, I-70 west of Breezewood, and I-81.

I have colored in a section left of the light blue line where I believe a period of snow or sleet may fall, which I’ll explain below.

Morning Surface Weather

This complex pattern is highlighted by a more organized Low Pressure along the Gulf Coast. This will track close to Maryland… enhancing the rain and keeping the colder air inland.

I am marking this track in my Atmospheric Memory file for the winter ahead.  It is significant for what I believe will be an active winter.

Wide View Forecast

1 PM Tuesday to 1 PM Wednesday 

This event will arrive this afternoon, then be gone before sunrise on Wednesday… Places that start with snow or sleet should turn to rain overnight. 

Closer Look (GFS Model)

Noon Temperature 

Baltimore only around 44ºF, with inland areas in the lower 40s and upper 30s.  This is chilly, but above freezing. 

1 PM

Rain arrives west of Baltimore, with snow near and west of Hagerstown.

4 PM

• Snow or sleet develops quickly between 1 and 4 PM.
• This is shown to include Frederick, Carroll, and NW Baltimore Counties in Maryland.
• Also into York and Harrisburg in PA.

Temperatures 

Expect a drop in temperatures with the start of the precipitation. The wintry mix areas will be in the 30s, with the freezing line close to Hagerstown and westward. 

7 PM

• Burst of Snow and sleet in those Northwest suburbs may last for a few hours….
• Heavier snow with stickage more likely along Rt 15 and I-81.

Temperatures 

The freezing line may get closer to Westminster and York.

Other Models

Canadian GEM

European ECMWF

Rest Of The Night (GFS)

Turning to rain with slightly warmer air moving in from the south.

10 PM

1 AM Wednesday 

4 AM Wednesday 

GFS Model Snow?

This is the high end of potential within reason

I do not trust the 2 to 5 inches between Westminster and York. This is assuming all stickage and does not account for melting.  But I needed to share with you just in case there is a surprise burst this evening.

National Weather Service Snow Forecasts

Maryland/Virginia 

Pennsylvania 

CLIMATE DATA

TODAY November 15

Normal Low in Baltimore:  37ºF

Record 19ºF in 1986

SNOW:1.7” 2018

Normal High in Baltimore: 58ºF

Record 79ºF 1993

Rain/Precipitation Total

Wednesday Morning

Wednesday Afternoon 

7 Day Forecast

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

Also See: Winter Outlook Series:

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

ALSO, SEE THESE OTHER WINTER OUTLOOK REPORTS

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

Faith in the Flakes Gear

SNOWSTIX – Available Now