Conditions: Baltimore, Maryland, 03/29/2024 10:00:03 am
Temperature

46°

Partly Cloudy

28°

Dew Point
Relative Humidity

49%

Feels Like

42°

Wind (W)

8mph

Air Pressure

29.93

Sun
Sun Rise

06:54 AM

Sun Set

07:27 PM

Day Length

12:33 Hours

Difference

2 min 34 sec gain

Moon
Moon Rise

07:00 PM

Moon Set

08:49 AM

Next: Last Quarter

Apr 01,2024

Moon Phase

Waning Gibbous

Climate
Average Low

37°

58°

Average High
Record Low

18°


(1923)

90°


(1945)
Record High
Conditions

Tuesday Brings A Freeze Warning A Winter Weather Advisory With Snow Or Sleet In Between

snow forecast
ice storm
Frost and Freeze
Forecast
Warnings

November 14 2022

Monday Evening Update

The first taste of winter shows up in two separate weather alerts for Tuesday. What I want to highlight again in this post is that I believe there will be more areas that might see their first flakes or sleet pellets not shown on this map.  I do have more maps that help support that for more of Central Maryland and Southern Pennsylvania.

Winter Weather Alerts:

Freeze Warning: Delmarva will give it another try after not getting to 32ºF Monday morning. 

Winter Weather Advisory: Some stickage may affect travel on I-68, I-70 west of Breezewood, and I-81.

I have colored in a section left of the light blue line where I believe a period of snow or sleet may fall, which I’ll explain below.

Tuesday Morning Temperatures 

This is the HRRR Model, which is the coldest outlook for low temps. Here I’ve highlighted the areas in the Freeze Warning that might get to 32ºF.

Let’s Back Up To The Weather System

UPDATE: NEW DATA/FORECAST

TUESDAY MORNING: Click here

November 15 Chilly Rain With Burst Of Snow And Sleet Inland Beyond The Winter Weather Advisory

Monday Evening Surface Weather

Low Pressure is identified near Memphis, with a Cold Front reaching Oklahoma City bringing in really cold air and snow.  The race for these two is on as this complex develops and heads towards Maryland on Tuesday afternoon. 

GFS Model: 7 AM Tuesday to 1 PM Wednesday 

This has constantly been showing the snow and icy mix just inland from Baltimore. It has been trending colder and closer…

It will bring in warmer air overnight, then race out of here by Wednesday as it heads toward New England. 

November 15 snow ice storm forecast

Closer Look: 1 PM Tue to 1 PM Wed

I would expect precipitation to begin in central Maryland between 1 PM and 4 PM. It may start with light rain or sleet, then the wintry precipitation will expand inland 4 PM to 7 PM. Then, warming later in the night.

Heavier snow will fall in the mountains, followed by Lake Effect Snow on Wednesday in and around Garrett County.

November 15 snow forecast Tuesday

 

Snapshots at 7 PM

Temperatures – Surface

Most of the region will be above freezing, but chilly. That freezing line may get into parts of York County in PA to Frederick County in Maryland. 

 

Temperatures Aloft: 

850mb level is roughly around 5,000 Ft above the ground and a key level for cloud temps.   Here we see the freezing line supporting frozen precipitation near Frederick, Westminster, Shrewsbury, and Lancaster.

 

Comparing Model Plots:

All of them do show some snow or sleet falling farther east than the Advisory area. This suggests falling but not necessarily sticking. 

I’ve highlighted some key towns, and we can see that snow potential exists for Frederick, Westminster, Hereford, through to York PA. 

GFS Model 

This continues to show snow and or sleet falling in the NW suburbs of Baltimore to the PA line near the Hereford Zone and around the York region.

 

Canadian Model 

This is very close to the GFS plot, with more icy mix shown in that peach color.

European ECMWF Model 

This is actually the colder plot now, showing a chance for snow even into parts of Baltimore. 

 

Also see:

Explain Winter Weather Precipitation: Snow, Sleet, and Freezing Rain 

 

How much snow?

This is where it gets tricky. These models tend to oversell the snowfall and don’t necessarily account for melting on warmer ground.  I am showing you the raw snow total plots which dramatically disagree with the official National Weather Service numbers (even on their high end).

No comment on the models. This is simply for fun (or posterity). If they are closer to being correct I will be sure to give the proper credit and account for future events.

GFS Model 

Most practical and closer to the NWS forecasts.

 

Canadian Model 

Same general region, but higher snow burst zone.

 

European ECMWF Model 

This is colder and shows accumulation farther east. I would take this one with a grain of salt.

 

National Weather Service Snow Plots

Maryland (Baltimore/Washington Office)

 

High End Snow Potential

Pennsylvania (State College Office)

 

High End Snow Potential

 

Rain/Precipitation Total

This will be a potent little system and may burst a band close to 1 inch of rain around the Chesapeake Bay.

 

I will aim to have my full morning update posted close to 6 AM on Tuesday. 

 

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Jet Stream: Wednesday to Saturday

Keeping trough of cold air for the eastern US.

November 14 jet stream winter weather

 

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

 

Also See: Winter Outlook Series:

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

 

 

ALSO, SEE THESE OTHER WINTER OUTLOOK REPORTS

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

 

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

 

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

 

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

 

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

 

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

 

Faith in the Flakes Gear

 

SNOWSTIX – Available Now

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