November 15, 2022
Tuesday Morning Update
Cold air has settled in this morning, including the first freeze for portions of Delmarva. It’s the area inland with the 20s that is significant with the approach of the next weather system. With clouds moving in early and trapping the cold air, there will be a burst of snow and sleet for many areas inland during the afternoon and evening.
I do not want you to be caught off guard with this first winter event. There is a Winter Weather Advisory for far western Maryland and interior Pennsylvania. However, there will be frozen stuff falling in the nearby suburbs of Baltimore.
The roads should remain wet and I will highlight those areas in this post.
Freeze Warning: Delmarva will give it another try after not getting to 32ºF Monday morning.
Winter Weather Advisory: Some stickage may affect travel on I-68, I-70 west of Breezewood, and I-81.
I have colored in a section left of the light blue line where I believe a period of snow or sleet may fall, which I’ll explain below.
This complex pattern is highlighted by a more organized Low Pressure along the Gulf Coast. This will track close to Maryland… enhancing the rain and keeping the colder air inland.
I am marking this track in my Atmospheric Memory file for the winter ahead. It is significant for what I believe will be an active winter.
1 PM Tuesday to 1 PM Wednesday
This event will arrive this afternoon, then be gone before sunrise on Wednesday… Places that start with snow or sleet should turn to rain overnight.
Baltimore only around 44ºF, with inland areas in the lower 40s and upper 30s. This is chilly, but above freezing.
Rain arrives west of Baltimore, with snow near and west of Hagerstown.
Expect a drop in temperatures with the start of the precipitation. The wintry mix areas will be in the 30s, with the freezing line close to Hagerstown and westward.
The freezing line may get closer to Westminster and York.
Turning to rain with slightly warmer air moving in from the south.
GFS Model Snow?
This is the high end of potential within reason
I do not trust the 2 to 5 inches between Westminster and York. This is assuming all stickage and does not account for melting. But I needed to share with you just in case there is a surprise burst this evening.
National Weather Service Snow Forecasts
Maryland/Virginia
Normal Low in Baltimore: 37ºF
Record 19ºF in 1986
SNOW:1.7” 2018
Normal High in Baltimore: 58ºF
Record 79ºF 1993
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school
Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).
Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following
Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow
