November 12, 2022

Saturday Morning Update 

Nicole raced out of here, so the good news is that we wake up this morning with still somewhat mild and dry weather.  That will not last as another impulse will arrive tonight and pull a front through. 

By Sunday morning much colder winds will mark a dramatic change in our weather pattern. Snow showers may drop a coating in far western Maryland and surrounding mountains.  Then we will watch another storm bring chilly rain and inland snow closer on Tuesday.

Headlines:

• Today: Mild
• Tonight: Rain evening through morning
• Sunday: Windy and MUCH COLDER
• Monday: Freeze Watch on Delmarva
• Tuesday: Chilly rain and inland snow (maybe closer)

Morning Surface Weather

The remains of Nicole are in New England.  Yes, that is snow between St. Louis and Cincinnati!  While it is mild locally today in metro and coastal areas, the next impulse is the leading edge of change and it will arrive with rain tonight. 

The air mass that follows is an early Arctic Blast. This is what will spread a colder set up for most of the nation for the rest of the week. 

Temperatures This Morning

Still very mild 60s in central Maryland and Delmarva, but the 50s and 40s are showing up in the mountains.

This Afternoon 

Last mild day for a while…

Radar Snapshot: 7 PM

Expect a band of rain to arrive this evening, and last through morning.

Radar Simulation 4 PM Sat to 10 AM Sun

A period of rain may be with some of us through Sunday morning…. 

Mountain Snow – At least a coating…

CLIMATE DATA

TODAY November 12

Normal Low in Baltimore:  37ºF

Record 18ºF in 1957

SNOW: 3.3” 1968

Normal High in Baltimore: 59ºF

Record 78ºF 1879

Average Temperatures Trending Cooler

Sunday Morning

Wind Forecast Animation

Wind Snapshot Sunday Morning

A strong wind from the Northwest will average 10 to 20 mph, but gust 25 to 30 mph.

Wind Chill

This is what it will feel like Sunday Morning with the wind!

Actual Temperatures 

Morning

Afternoon

Most of the region will remain in the 40s, with 30s and 20s in the mountains.

Monday Morning: Freeze Watch

This will be the first hard freeze for many east of the Chesapeake Bay.

Next Week: Next Storm

GFS Model Tuesday Night

I’ve highlighted the potential for where snow may fly. This is NOT a promise of stickage. The ground needs to chill sufficiently and early season events are a challenge to note when and where the snow may lay and stay.

There is hope for it to fall nearby. FITF

Storm Animation 7 AM TUE to 7 PM WED

This storm track from the Ohio Valley will race through, but seems to match the recent history of storms near or along the coast. I see a pattern emerging (atmospheric memory).

Temperature Outlook

This is what we have been talking about…. It’s about to arrive!

7 Day Forecast

Here is our cold air!!!

NEW: November Outlook Map From NOAA  Showed This For The First Time

The Big Cool Down Into Mid November: NOAA Outlook Does This For First Time

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

Also See: Winter Outlook Series:

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

ALSO, SEE THESE OTHER WINTER OUTLOOK REPORTS

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

Faith in the Flakes Gear

SNOWSTIX – Available Now