November 11 2022
It might be hard to process the thought of snow while the remains of former Hurricane Nicole dump a warm rain on the eastern US today. However, this is also the anniversary of the famous Veterans Day Snowstorm in 1987. That event brought a record 6 inches of snow to Baltimore and 11.5 inches in Washington, DC.
This is NOT what I am suggesting now. However, it is the season where conditions can line up for a burst of winter weather. Much colder air will arrive behind Nicole, and an active jet stream will develop a storm next week. The track of that event is still subject to some adjustment, which means now is the time to start tracking.
NOAA Temperature Outlook
This cold air might be a shock to your system, but it has been expected for the past week.
Let’s back up and track the current event and Nicole, then what will follow.
Nicole is no longer a tropical system and The National Hurricane Center has handed off the coverage to another NOAA office. Winds are still 30 to 35 mph, and there is still a severe storm risk. In fact a Tornado Watch has been issued in parts of Virginia and North Carolina.
4 PM Fri to 4 AM SAT
Heavy rain and severe storm risk today through tonight. The Low will race to our north and be out of here by morning.
Low Pressure entering Vermont at sunrise. While still mild in Maryland, the first sign of colder air will be crossing the mountains.
Snow showers will fall across the mountains, including around Deep Creek Lake in Garrett County, MD.
1 AM SAT to 1 PM Sun
Another band of rain showers is expected Saturday night, which will usher in the colder air. This will be followed by the snow for the mountains.
A dusting or more is likely around mountain resorts like Wisp, Canaan Valley, and Snowshoe, WV.
If you live west and north of the big cities, you might have seen a snowflake show up on your weather apps. If so, here is why…
Here is the developing short wave/storm as projected next Tuesday morning on the GFS Model. This looks like a winter event with a track possibly over central Maryland. That track ‘possibility’ is key to note as there will be some adjustment and the cold air will be to the north and west of the path. That is where the ‘snow zone’ is possible.
When I first mentioned this, the issue was the timing for ‘something’ next week and the models were not in agreement. They have narrowed the gap overnight to focus on Tuesday into Wednesday.
This is the GFS Model plot.. I will compare to the European Model below.
This is just enough to be a tease. Yes, we see a shade of blue suggesting some snow potential in Northern Baltimore, Carroll, and Frederick Counties in Maryland. Reminder: This is a ‘suggestion’, but also why I want to document this and focus on trends going forward.
There may be enough snow in the mountains for stickage and even a measurable event. FITF
I wanted to highlight key time frames here. Note, this is a little later than the GFS plots, but close in the results (for now).
Track the Low Pressure near or south of I-95.
Also showing a ‘hint’ of snowflakes or a mix for interior Maryland, with more pronounced snow, slush, or icy mix in the mountains.
Warmer air wins for metro areas. This is simply a chilly rain event for the cities. Meanwhile, the mountains may continue to get snow in places like Wisp and Snowshoe. In the best case scenario, snow may also linger for Ski Liberty and Whitetail in southern Pennsylvania.
Ending as rain for us.. But that Low Pressure track is very intriguing. If this holds, I find this very positive for snow lovers this winter. I will have more on my thoughts with the winter storm track soon.
A great summary of that historic weather event as coved by WUSA-9 in Washington, DC. Click in the image for their report.
Colder air will follow Nicole and next week may look like early winter. These are temps for Baltimore. It will be colder inland!
The pattern is trying to develop a storm with inland snow next week. This is still a challenge to determine which day this may develop… stay tuned.
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