November 6 2022

Now that we are out of Daylight Saving Time, the early darkness gets us thinking about the winter chill on the way. It is not here yet! This past weekend featured 80ºF Saturday and 78ºF Sunday in Baltimore. Both just short of records. 

Colder air is on the way for sure. In fact, while I have been looking at the major shift in the jet stream to cool us down, the NOAA Temperature Outlook has plotted something we have not seen before. It has caught the attention of many meteorologists.  The next week plus ahead brings both a possible tropical storm AND The Polar Vortex into legitimate discussion. 

Let’s start with the first of the two outlooks that are issued.

NOAA OUTLOOK: Days 6 to 10 Issued November 5th

We can see the Deep Blue showing Very Cold in the central US. This advances to the East, but in this time frame some of the leftover warmth is expected to linger in eastern New England AND Southern Florida.

Wait for it…

Jet Stream

Monday Evening Nov 7 to Monday Evening Nov 14

The warm ‘ridge’ will be replaced by a cooler trough later this week. It will help pull that expected tropical system from Florida up the East Coast, which in turn will enhance a second surge of a digging trough behind it into next week.

These temperature outlooks have been issued since 2015, and what we see over the next two weeks across the ‘mainland’ or ‘lower 48 states’ of the US is almost entirely BELOW NORMAL!

NOAA OUTLOOK: Days 8 to 14 Issued November 5

If we focus on NEXT WEEK itself, then only Southern Florida has escaped this next round of chilly air. This is nearly all of the continuous United States expecting below normal temperatures. This is the LARGEST COVERAGE AREA for below normal temperatures issued for the 8 to 14 day period.

Highlight Tweet

This has caught the attention of Brian Brettschneider, who has a PhD in Climatology. He said the previous spread of ‘Below Normal’ was 95.7% in February of 2019.   

Looking at all 8-14 Day Outlooks issued since 2015, this map has the highest percent of the Lower 48 in Below Normal (over 2,000 forecasts). Previous high was 95.7% on 2/19/2019. Note: station probabilities used to compute percentages are only issued M-F. pic.twitter.com/lAnxvDToj3

— Brian Brettschneider (@Climatologist49) November 5, 2022

Temperature Trend:

Monday Afternoon to Sunday Morning

I know this is too fast to read, but it looks impressive and helps show the story. 

Temperatures: Model Projections 

Using home base in Baltimore as reference here, this is what we see comparing models. 

GFS Model

This is the longest outlook projection we have to share.  It does show two impulses of colder air. The first one is moderated with a potential tropical system arriving this weekend. Then it will be followed by a second stronger and longer sustained cold pattern.

ECWMF (European) Model

This model also shows the second push of cold air AFTER the weekend tropical cyclone. That cold air in the 40s does seem a bit extreme, yet it is close to 10 degrees below average.

National Blend of Models

Polar Vortex

It is that time of year and the well known Dr. Judah Cohen has come back from hiatus with his first acknowledgment that The Polar Vortex is back in play!

I’m baaaack! And who is here to greet meet upon my return this week but my new best friend the stretched #PolarVortex with all the trimmings. It’s good to be back and kicking it off with a new blog tomorrow. Did my absence make anyone’s heart grow fonder? pic.twitter.com/KFHQVbt1fp

— Judah Cohen (@judah47) November 6, 2022

Tropical Storm For The East Coast?

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded this area near The Bahamas to a 90% likelihood to get named in the next 5 days. This would turn curve into Florida… But the models show that by Thursday, so this is really a 4 day outlook.

GFS Model Forecast

Wednesday Evening to Saturday Evening

Tracking that storm into South Florida on Thursday, then up the east coast into the weekend. 

Rain for the Mid Atlantic should be late Friday to Saturday morning. 

Still plenty to sort out and lots of time this week ahead. I will have an update on this in my morning weather report. 

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