November 10 2022

Thursday Morning Update 

Hurricane Nicole made a rare November landfall on Florida’s East Coast near Vero Beach. It was a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds, making it the 8th hurricane of the Atlantic season. It brought a large area of storm surge up the coast. I’ve collected some videos below. As of now, it has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm again as it crosses inland Florida and eventually reaches us in the Mid Atlantic tomorrow. 

Meanwhile, a large snowstorm with blizzard conditions and feet of snow are falling on the Northern Plains. It is quite the contrast and yet we get one nice day in between. 

Morning Surface Weather

Tropical Storm Nicole crosses Florida. A snowstorm rages in the Northern Plains. We have a cold morning that will be followed by a warmer day ahead of Nicole. 

The cold front will help steer Nicole and speed it up. This will be followed by colder air at the end of the weekend behind the storm. 

Snow in Montana

Beautiful view from Miles City, MT as the snow quickly accumulates tonight. #mtwx pic.twitter.com/Zc6CHW3uZ2

— WeatherNation (@WeatherNation) November 10, 2022

Nicole Videos

Storm Surge

The push of Atlantic water has been a long duration problem in places like Daytona.

DANGEROUS STORM SURGE: Video shows waves crashing in Daytona Beach Shores just before high tide. Hurricane Nicole is likely to bring dangerous storm surge to Florida’s east coast. pic.twitter.com/tLmYYS8NRw

— WESH 2 News (@WESH) November 10, 2022

Stronger Than Expected?

Storm Chasers suggested this was STRONGER than they expected.

Nicole is a little stronger than I expected! #flwx @SevereStudios pic.twitter.com/fYwtBfnybK

— Jordan Hall (@JordanHallWX) November 10, 2022

Storm Damage in Melbourne, FL

Intense eyewall winds from Hurricane Nicole damage structure in Melbourne, FL #FLwx #HurricaneNicole pic.twitter.com/mFCquSKgBE

— Ryan Kelly (@EastWestWx) November 10, 2022

Tropical Storm Nicole Satellite Loop

This large circulation is now centered on land, so the storm will inevitably get weaker as it expands north.

4 AM EST Report

The National Hurricane Center :

• LOCATION…27.8N 80.7W
• ABOUT 25 MI…35 KM NW OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA
• ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM SE OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…981 MB…28.97 INCHES

LIVE RADAR WIDGET

Control the view and loop control below.

Forecast Animation – GFS Model

7 AM THU to 10 AM Sat

A local look at the rain below.

Local Weather Today

Afternoon Temperatures 

It will be warmer than yesterday.

CLIMATE DATA

TODAY November 10

Normal Low in Baltimore:  38ºF

Record 24ºF in 2003

SNOW: 1” 1968

Normal High in Baltimore: 59ºF

Record 78ºF 2020

Average Temperatures Trending Cooler

Friday Rain

The remains of Nicole should bring rain for many of us around daybreak. It will arrive from the south and become heavy in a hurry. Some thunder, and isolated tornadoes are possible.

There will be a few lulls during the afternoon or evening, then a strong final push of heavy rain overnight, ending Saturday morning.

GFS Model 7 AM FRI to 10 AM SAT

Total Rainfall Forecast

Much heavier rain will fall inland, with less towards the coast.

Friday Temperatures

Morning

Afternoon

Rainfall Forecast 

7 Day Forecast

Heavy rain Friday to early Saturday, then much colder air will follow.

This pattern may bring snow to western Maryland by Sunday and Monday.

NEW: November Outlook Map From NOAA  Showed This For The First Time

The Big Cool Down Into Mid November: NOAA Outlook Does This For First Time

Also See: Winter Outlook Series:

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

ALSO, SEE THESE OTHER WINTER OUTLOOK REPORTS

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

Faith in the Flakes Gear

SNOWSTIX – Available Now