November 8, 2022

Tuesday Morning Update 

So much happening now and I want to make this quick and simple for my morning report.  A record high temperature, lunar eclipse, election day, and Nicole transitioning to a full tropical storm then maybe a hurricane for Florida where warnings are already in place. This storm will turn north (inland) for us to get heavy rain in the Mid Atlantic on Friday.

Baltimore set a new record high Monday with 81ºF at BWI. That will change today and into the week ahead for sure. 

This morning, we started with a Total Lunar Eclipse, and I will be sorting through many photos to share later. Here is one of the early shows I got so far of the Blood Red Moon.

Lunar Eclipse From Central Maryland

There it is…🤩 #LunarEclipse seen in central Maryland!
🌖🌗🌘🌑 https://t.co/PANIymvVZo

— Justin Berk (@JustinWeather) November 8, 2022

Additional Lunar Eclipse Photos

Meanwhile it is Election Day, so our news outlets will be dominated by that ‘stuff’.

Let’s focus here on just the weather. In this case, we need to focus on Subtropical Storm Nicole. It will transition to a full Tropical Storm today and then could become a Hurricane before reaching Florida.  Warnings and watches are in place which I will highlight here.

Subtropical Storm Nicole Satellite Loop

UPDATE: HURRICANE WARNING FOR FLORIDA

Click this box for the NEW Report:

Hurricane Warning For Florida: Tropical Storm Nicole Update

4 AM EST Report

The National Hurricane Center expects a transition to a full Tropical Storm today. 

LOCATION…27.6N 71.6W

ABOUT 400 MI…ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH

PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…995 MB…29.39 INCHES

Watches and Warnings (Map below)

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

• The Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island in the northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

• Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera in the northwestern Bahamas
• Hallandale Beach, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia
• Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…

• North Palm Beach, Florida to Altamaha Sound, Georgia
• Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown, Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

• Hallandale Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida
• Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…

• South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach, Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

• South of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef, Florida
• North of Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River Florida

Forecast Intensity 

Forecast Track

Here is the wide view, which we expect will cross Florida, and then the remnant Low may cross Central Maryland by Saturday morning. This will be INLAND so we DO NOT have a storm surge to deal with. 

Forecast Animation – GFS

More on the local impact below

Local Weather Today

Afternoon Temperatures 

It will be much cooler than yesterday.

CLIMATE DATA

TODAY November 8

Normal Low in Baltimore:  39ºF

Record 24ºF in 1960

SNOW: Trace in 1992

Normal High in Baltimore: 60ºF

Record 80ºF 2075 *Latest date for temps this warm

Average Temperatures Trending Cooler

Wednesday Temperatures

Morning

Freezing temps will be possible inland, while remaining mild near the water.

Afternoon

Cooler and much more in line with seasonal expectations.

Looking Ahead For Nicole

GFS Model: Friday Morning To Saturday Afternoon. 

This will be a quick hit for us. Rain will move in during the morning and will be heavy in the afternoon and evening. At this point, it looks like the heavy rain will shut off Saturday morning, perhaps clearing out and turning mild for the afternoon. Then colder on Sunday. 

Rain Forecast

A large area OVER 2 inches may produce flooding.

I will have a comparison with other models in my next report today.

7 Day Forecast

Heavy rain Friday to early Saturday, then much colder air will follow.

This pattern may bring snow to western Maryland by Sunday and Monday. 

NEW: November Outlook Map From NOAA  Showed This For The First Time

The Big Cool Down Into Mid November: NOAA Outlook Does This For First Time

Also See: Winter Outlook Series:

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

ALSO SEE THESE OTHER WINTER OUTLOOK REPORTS

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

Faith in the Flakes Gear

SNOWSTIX – Available Now