Saturday November 5 2022

The unseasonably warm weather we have here on the East Coast of the US has a tradeoff.  While we have missed out the the severe storms that have hit the southern Plains, strong winds ahead of that storm system are what has been pumping in late summer weather. 

As much as I would like to be saying, “Ride Sally Ride”, the SS Sally Ride mission on Sunday Morning has some hurdles.

Two Questions:

• If the rocket launches, who may miss out on viewing it due to weather?
• Will the weather at Wallops Island interfere with the rocket launch?

When I first intended to write this weather update, I expected it would suggest that some places will simply not see the rocket launch due to clouds and rain.  But since The Wallops Island facility is to our Southeast and away from the rain, it would be great to think the scheduled event would still happen. Upon digging a little deeper, the weather conditions have other elements that may hinder the rocket launch on time. 

REMINDER: CLOCKS TURN BACK 1 HOUR BEFORE SUNDAY MORNING

Saturday Evening Weather Map

A strong cold front is draped from the Great Lakes, down the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast.  Strong winds ahead of this system are from the South. That is what has increased out temps to the 70s, but also the cloud cover inland.

The clouds that had built inland during the day are from the same force that has helped develop fog along the coast overnight and into the early morning. 

Satellite Loop: 2 Hours ending at 5 PM

A solid line of clouds will continue to spread in from the west.  There is more clearing by the coast this evening, however that may not last until morning.

Weather Factors Sunday Morning

• Rain inland – Would only be an issue for the inland areas to see the low horizon fire and vapor trail.

Launch Site:

• Strong Winds on the surface and aloft.
• Low clouds and fog

Let’a look at these separately.

Rain Inland

IF THE LAUNCH HAPPENS…

Here is where rain is expected to be falling… Inland!  So if you are near I-95 from around Baltimore and inland to the west and north, this is not the event for you to walk up for… Unless you want to watch online. 

See the Rocket Launch info here

Predicted Viewing Range

Rainy Forecast Sunday Morning

The ECMWF Model shows the rain moving in close to Washington, Baltimore, York PA, and westward before sunrise.

1 AM to 4 PM Sunday

Rain Timeline —> slider

6 AM to Noon Sunday 

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At The Rocket Launch Site…

Artemis Weather Criteria 

I’ve curtailed the NASA restriction list for what is relevant now.

A complete list of weather restrictions can be found here from NASA.

https://www.nasa.gov/content/artemis-i-weather-criteria

Basic Weather Launch Criteria at the Pad for Liftoff

Wind

• Do not launch if the peak liftoff winds exceed a range of 29 knots through 39 knots between 132.5 feet and 457.5 feet, respectively.
• Do not launch through upper-level wind conditions that could lead to control problems for the launch vehicle.

Winds Aloft Will Be Brisk

Perhaps just below the criteria of 40 knots.

Precipitation

Do not launch through precipitation.

*It should not be raining at Wallops Island in the morning.

Wind Forecast Maps

Gusty winds may actually begin to ease close to or shortly after launch time.

Forecast Wind Gust (Surface)

Forecast Wind Speed: Midnight to Noon Sunday

Surface winds may gust over 30 mph until early morning.

Winds Aloft around 5,000 Ft

Winds forecast to be 25 to 35 knots.

Cloud  Restrictions (From NASA)

Do not launch through a cloud layer that is within 5 nautical miles, greater than 4,500 feet thick, and extends into freezing temperatures, unless specific criteria related to radar reflectivity and cloud altitude can be met.

Cloud Forecast For Sunday Morning

Other Cloud Restrictions

Do not launch if the flight path is within 3 nautical miles of a thunderstorm debris cloud for 3 hours, unless temperature, surface electric field, and radar reflectivity criteria can be met.

Do not launch if the flight path is within 5 nautical miles of disturbed weather clouds that extend into freezing temperatures and contain moderate or greater precipitation.

Do not launch if the flight path is within 10 nautical miles of cumulus clouds with certain distance and height criteria. There are additional caveats that could be met for clouds not reaching 23 degrees Fahrenheit.

Do not launch through cumulus clouds formed as the result of or directly attached to a smoke plume, unless more than 60 minutes passed since detachment from the smoke plume.

Do not launch for 15 minutes if field mill instrument readings within 5 nautical miles of the launch pad equal or exceed +/- 1,500 volts per meter, or +/- 1,000 volts per meter, unless specific caveats related to clouds within 10 nautical miles of the flight path can be met.

Explore More

Next Rocket Launch From Wallops To Mark On Your Calendar

Antares Rocket Photos Reaching Launchpad: Sunday Morning NASA Launch Mission Update

Also See:

Meteor Sighting Friday Night November 4: Video From Baltimore County And Map Where It Tracked

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