Conditions: Baltimore, Maryland, 12/09/2023 01:40:04 pm


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07:14 AM

Sun Set

04:43 PM

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09:29 Hours


0 min 47 sec loss

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03:41 AM

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02:22 PM

Next: New Moon

Dec 12,2023

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Waning Crescent

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Record High

November Weather Outlook Starting Warm And Near Record Heat


October 30 2022

As we turn the page on the calendar to November there are a few standard things that make us look ahead with the weather pattern.  Ironically, the first weekend of the month brings us a step backwards. The end of Daylight Saving Time, or return to Standard Time will be early Sunday morning November 6.  With the leaves falling and days growing shorter, it is inevitable that the air will get colder. But that cold will be delayed in the eastern US this year.

The first week to 10 days of the month will be quite warm, which we will explore below. 

NOAA Temperature Outlook: Starting November

We will look at some forecast temps below. 

A shift in the jet stream will flip the pattern across the US.  What has been cooler in the east, will abruptly change to very warm, while the cold will continue to build the snowpack in the Rockies. 


Jet Stream: November 1st to 7th

GFS Model

Orange = Ridge and warmth, Blue = Trough and cold. 

If you are like me and love winter, this is actually a good thing. We don’t want to waste the cold too soon, and I expect the pattern has signals to flip again by Thanksgiving.

November weather pattern jet stream warm and cold


Storm Animation: November 1st to 7th

GFS Model

November Storm Track Snow West And Warmth East

Snapshot Storm Track Friday

The storm pattern can be best illustrated if we look at the snapshot for Friday morning. High Pressure will be over the Mid Atlantic and controlling the eastern US. It will allow for more sun and the air flow from the south to pump in warmer temps. 

This will be aided but the storm track from Colorado to the Great Lakes. That cold air will be stuck to the west and north. 

Snapshot Temperatures Sunday

This is from the GFS Model, which has been pushing very warm air next weekend. Yes, this shows temps near 80ºF for Baltimore. 


Baltimore Almanac: Normal High = 62ºF, Record High 80ºF in 2015.

For what it’s worth, our record 29.2” snowfall was the following January. But the rest of that winter was lame, and we can’t even really draw a correlation to a single day and the long range outlook. 



The good news is that IF High Pressure holds AND it is mild, that might encourage more to wake up early on Sunday for the Rocket Launch from Wallops Island

Next Rocket Launch From Wallops To Mark On Your Calendar




Long Range Model Temperature Forecasts

Here’s a comparison of the GFS and European ECMWF Model for Baltimore at BWI

GFS Model

The GFS Model brings in the heat and near record high next weekend, followed by a dramatic drop in temps well below normal by mid month.


European ECMWF Model

The European Model delays the really warm air a few days later. This model plot is not as far out, so we only see a hint of the cooler air to follow.



Later In The Month

Even our friend Dr. Judah Cohen is optimistic about the second half of November. Regardless of what happens at the start, the developing Polar Vortex is looking promising. 


Yes, I have a love for snow, but work hard to keep my bias out of my forecasting.   What I have learned is that early cold often leads to a mild start to winter. So a mild start to November may very well allow that cold to build elsewhere and reach us when the time is right. 

Faith in the Flakes #FITF


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