October 21 2022
This report was timed out well, perhaps by accident. We just had an early season arctic air mass that pushed freezing temperatures all the way to the Gulf Coast. It also brought widespread frost to Delmarva and the first snow into western Maryland. So why not look ahead to the Winter Season? NOAA just released their report.
What I have found over the years is that these reports often follow standard expectations for large scale or global patterns. This time we are expecting a third winter in a row with La Niña, otherwise known as a ‘triple dip’. I’ve written about that before and have the report below. I have also written about a comparison to the two most popular Farmer’s Almanacs. Some see those as very valuable resources, while others deem them entertainment. Regardless, they BOTH call for a somewhat cold and snowy winter here in the Mid Atlantic. In contrast, NOAA has a different story.
“The hardworking forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center produce timely and accurate seasonal outlooks and short-term forecasts year-round,” said Michael Farrar, Ph.D., director of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. “NOAA’s new supercomputers are enabling us to develop even better, more detailed forecast capabilities, which we’ll be rolling out in the coming years.”
Here are the highlights from the NOAA Winter Outlook Report. I have posted my other Winter Outlook reports to compare below:
This year La Niña returns for the third consecutive winter, driving warmer-than-average temperatures for the Southwest and along the Gulf Coast and eastern seaboard, according to NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook released today by the Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service. Starting in December 2022 through February 2023, NOAA predicts drier-than-average conditions across the South with wetter-than-average conditions for areas of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest.
This DOES NOT determine individual snow events. It is possible to have cold snow events within a warmer pattern. That is what we had in the winter of 2016 and our all time top snowstorm in January that year.
Reminder, this is overall total. It DOES NOT determine individual snow events. It is possible to have cold snow events within a warmer pattern. That is what we had in the winter of 2016 and our all time top snowstorm in January that year.
NOAA’s seasonal outlooks provide the likelihood that temperatures and total precipitation amounts will be above-, near- or below-average, and how drought conditions are anticipated to change in the months ahead. The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. (A CFO‘s outlook isn’t this detailed!)
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook each month. The next update will be available November 17.
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.
Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following
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