October 21 2022

This report was timed out well, perhaps by accident. We just had an early season arctic air mass that pushed freezing temperatures all the way to the Gulf Coast.  It also brought widespread frost to Delmarva and the first snow into western Maryland.  So why not look ahead to the Winter Season?  NOAA just released their report.

What I have found over the years is that these reports often follow standard expectations for large scale or global patterns. This time we are expecting a third winter in a row with La Niña, otherwise known as a ‘triple dip’.  I’ve written about that before and have the report below.  I have also written about a comparison to the two most popular Farmer’s Almanacs. Some see those as very valuable resources, while others deem them entertainment. Regardless, they BOTH call for a somewhat cold and snowy winter here in the Mid Atlantic. In contrast, NOAA has a different story.

“The hardworking forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center produce timely and accurate seasonal outlooks and short-term forecasts year-round,” said Michael Farrar, Ph.D., director of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. “NOAA’s new supercomputers are enabling us to develop even better, more detailed forecast capabilities, which we’ll be rolling out in the coming years.”

Here are the highlights from the NOAA Winter Outlook Report. I have posted my other Winter Outlook reports to compare below:

This year La Niña returns for the third consecutive winter, driving warmer-than-average temperatures for the Southwest and along the Gulf Coast and eastern seaboard, according to NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook released today by the Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service. Starting in December 2022 through February 2023, NOAA predicts drier-than-average conditions across the South with wetter-than-average conditions for areas of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest.

MY THOUGHTS:

This DOES NOT determine individual snow events. It is possible to have cold snow events within a warmer pattern. That is what we had in the winter of 2016 and our all time top snowstorm in January that year.

Temperature Outlook

Temperature

• The greatest chance for warmer-than-average conditions are in western Alaska, and the Central Great Basin and Southwest extending through the Southern Plains.
• Warmer-than-average temperatures are also favored in the Southeastern U.S. and along the Atlantic coast.

Precipitation Outlook

Reminder, this is overall total. It DOES NOT determine individual snow events. It is possible to have cold snow events within a warmer pattern. That is what we had in the winter of 2016 and our all time top snowstorm in January that year.

Precipitation

• Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
• The greatest chances for drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of California, the Southwest, the southern Rockies, the southern Plains, Gulf Coast and much of the Southeast.
• The remainder of the U.S. falls into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average seasonal total precipitation.

About NOAA’s seasonal outlooks

NOAA’s seasonal outlooks provide the likelihood that temperatures and total precipitation amounts will be above-, near- or below-average, and how drought conditions are anticipated to change in the months ahead. The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. (A CFO‘s outlook isn’t this detailed!)

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook each month. The next update will be available November 17.

ALSO SEE THESE OTHER WINTER OUTLOOK REPORTS

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Nina Winter

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Winter Folklore Checklist

Winter Weather Folklore Checklist

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

Faith in the Flakes Gear

SNOWSTIX – Available Now

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school