TS Ian Back Over Water And Hurricane Warning Issued For All Of Coastal South Carolina

Thursday Morning September 29, 2022

At 11 AM the center of Tropical Storm Ian was back over the water, the fuel source. The surface temperatures do support potential development back up to Category 1 Hurricane. Winds are already up to 70 mph and a Hurricane Warning has been issued for ALL of the South Carolina Coast. The storm is expected to make a second landfall as a hurricane near Charleston, South Carolina by Thursday evening. See the maps below.

IAN WILL BE A HURRICANE AGAIN TODAY

Farther North, flooding rain is possible all the way into Maryland this weekend… and with the lingering upper Low hanging around through early next week.

Wind Profile at 11 AM

Note the EAST Wind is ONSHORE, resulting in Storm Surge for Northeast Florida. The St. Johns River in Jacksonville is particularly vulnerable.

Ian: Sep 29 Thursday Morning

Quick Stats at 11 AM

• Winds are 70 mph
• Moving to the NNE 9 mph
• Located 40 miles SE of Orlando, 25 miles NE of Cape Canaveral, 285 miles South of Charleston SC
• HUGE SIZE
• Tropical Storm force winds extend 415 miles from the center.

Visible Satellite Loop

This spectrum shows the center better as it reaches the water of the Atlantic Ocean by Cocoa Beach.

Power Outages as of 11 AM Thursday, Sep 29

Over 2.6 Million Customers out. While some on the Gulf Coast get back online, more outages are expected on the Atlantic Coast.

It has been widely accepted that parts of the grid will be unrepairable and need to be completely replaced.

See the live update from https://poweroutage.us/area/state/florida

LIVE RADAR/LIGHTNING WIDGET

Forecast Winds

2 PM Thursday to 4 PM Friday – GFS Model

NEW Watches and Warnings

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…

* Flagler/Volusia Line to Little River Inlet

* Neuse River

* St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

* Savannah River to Little River Inlet

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* Jupiter Inlet Florida to Duck North Carolina

* Pamlico Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…

* North of South Santee River to Duck North Carolina

* Pamlico River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Savannah River

Computer Model Guidance Intensity Forecast

A few members show this back to Category 1 Hurricane later today. Then weakening again after a second US landfall.

National Hurricane Center Forecast Track 

This will become a Category 1 Hurricane again today, then curve into the coast of South Carolina… Bringing additional flooding rain and storm surge to places like the St. Johns River in Jacksonville, then coastal South Carolina.

The landfall Storm Surge will be strongest on the RIGHT SIDE of the Eye, up the coast of South Carolina.

Storm Surge Forecast

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…

* Flagler/Volusia Line to Little River Inlet

* Neuse River

St. Johns River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…

* North of South Santee River to Duck North Carolina

* Pamlico River

Computer Model Tracks

Note that each model has many different solutions called members. All of these are plotted together for an Ensemble. The final solution is the average of them all.

European ECWMF Model

GFS Model

Forecast: Storm Simulation 

2 PM Thursday to 8 AM Saturday

Heavy rain spreads inland and reaches Maryland to start the weekend

(I will have a local look at the Mid Atlantic later today)

Explore More

My morning report about the impact on the Mid-Atlantic. I will have a more focused report for The Chesapeake Bay and Delmarva Beaches later today.

PATTERN CHANGER?

Hurricane Ian May Help Cooler Pattern Change: Monitor For Atmospheric Memory This Winter

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Hurricane Season Forecast: June 1 Through November 30

NOAA 2022 Hurricane Forecast- Above Normal Again

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