Wednesday, August 24 2022
What happened to the busy tropical season ‘THEY’ told us about? The current status of the Tropical Atlantic is really quiet as we enter the climatological peak of hurricane season. It has been over seven weeks since the last named storm. That was Tropical Storm Colin way back on July 2. In fact, we have only had three named storms to date, a far cry from the 14 to 20 forecast by NOAA. Of those, the outlook was for 6 to 10 to become hurricanes. Instead, we are talking about a drought.
The most active part of the hurricane season is NOW, with the midpoint climatologically on September 14th.
No potential systems in sight! If we remain quiet for 9 more days, we will set a new record.
If we do NOT have a newly named storm by September 3, we will set a new record for longest mid season gap between systems.
If we get through the next 7 days without a new tropical storm, this would tie only 1961 and 1997 for the 3rd quietest August on record in the satellite era.
This is the measurement (from the University of Miami) used to compare the activity in the tropics between tropical storms, and hurricanes accounting for their size and strength.
This is becoming quite the chatter in the meteorological community.
This is from Dr. Kim Wood a professor of tropical climatology from Mississippi State University:
Atlantic tropical cyclone activity has been low so far in 2022. How low? Since 1966, just five seasons produced less ACE through Aug 20:
1967 (-ENSO neutral)
1977 (eventual El Niño)
1984 (eventual La Niña)
1988 (La Niña)
1992 (-ENSO neutral)ONI values: https://t.co/U3FJNkYf7a pic.twitter.com/WH0Y3dV9Fy
— Dr. Kim Wood (@DrKimWood) August 21, 2022
CLIMATE GRAPH
By August 22 the 5th storm should have been named.
Last year we had 8 named storms by that date.
It should be noted that August 2021 was exceptional, with SIX new storms added in the THREE week period between August 10 to August 30.
There are fast level winds aloft that limit the ability in the tropics for tall convection to develop and organize. This is common in the Atlantic when there is a La Niña in the Pacific. However, this is a La Niña year, which normally would shut down the wind sheer and allow higher tropical activity.
As we saw in Dr. Wood’s tweet above, there were two La Niña years in the top 5 low seasons (1984 and 1988)
There has been plenty of events blowing large amounts of dust from The Sahara off the African continent into the Atlantic. This both helps with very dry air AND can coat the ocean with a layer of dust inhibiting normal evaporation and storm development. Yes, I know the waves slosh around and mix up the surface conditions, but it has been documented to be a factor.
What about the rest of the season? We are in uncharted territory simply because there are many factors that still support storms. But we have records that show both the season remaining quiet and late surges. (Got a good home improvement contractor?)
The purpose for storms is to release energy. That is what all storms on our planet do. They attempt to redistribute an imbalance of heat, and the result is wind, rain, and snow.
There have been some seasons that were low on activity, but when the storms got going they were devastating.
NOAA 2022 Hurricane Forecast- Above Normal Again
NOAA Study: Reducing Air Pollution INCREASED Tropical Storms
Atlantic Tropical History: Maps of Origin Regions Every 10 Days
May 16 Large Hail Videos And Storm Tracking Map
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
I do miss mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.
