Atlantic Tropics So Quiet It May Set A Record Soon

Wednesday, August 24 2022

What happened to the busy tropical season ‘THEY’ told us about? The current status of the Tropical Atlantic is really quiet as we enter the climatological peak of hurricane season. It has been over seven weeks since the last named storm. That was Tropical Storm Colin way back on July 2. In fact, we have only had three named storms to date, a far cry from the 14 to 20 forecast by NOAA. Of those, the outlook was for 6 to 10 to become hurricanes. Instead, we are talking about a drought. 

Quietly Entering The Peak Season

The most active part of the hurricane season is NOW, with the midpoint climatologically on September 14th. 

Tropical Outlook On September 24

From the National Hurricane Center

No potential systems in sight!   If we remain quiet for 9 more days, we will set a new record.

Tropical Drought By The Numbers

• 323 – Days since the last hurricane on October 5, 2021
• 7th Longest stretch on record since 1965, in the satellite era.
• 52 That is how many days since the last named tropical system, Colin formed on July 2.
• 3rd Longest gap between named storms within a season.
• 61 days is the record, set back in 1999.

If we do NOT have a newly named storm by September 3, we will set a new record for longest mid season gap between systems. 

No Storms Named In August: Tie

If we get through the next 7 days without a new tropical storm, this would tie only 1961 and 1997 for the 3rd quietest August on record in the satellite era.

ACE Accumulated Cyclone Energy

This is the measurement (from the University of Miami) used to compare the activity in the tropics between tropical storms, and hurricanes accounting for their size and strength. 

Since 1966, only 5 have produce LESS ACE than this year (so far)

Hear From the Doctor

This is becoming quite the chatter in the meteorological community.

This is from Dr. Kim Wood a professor of tropical climatology from Mississippi State University:

Atlantic tropical cyclone activity has been low so far in 2022. How low? Since 1966, just five seasons produced less ACE through Aug 20:

1967 (-ENSO neutral)
1977 (eventual El Niño)
1984 (eventual La Niña)
1988 (La Niña)
1992 (-ENSO neutral)

ONI values: https://t.co/U3FJNkYf7a pic.twitter.com/WH0Y3dV9Fy

— Dr. Kim Wood (@DrKimWood) August 21, 2022

CLIMATE GRAPH

How Quiet Has It Been?

By August 22 the 5th storm should have been named.

Last year we had 8 named storms by that date.

It should be noted that August 2021 was exceptional, with SIX new storms added in the THREE week period between August 10 to August 30. 

Why has it been so quiet?

Two reasons:

1) Wind Sheer

There are fast level winds aloft that limit the ability in the tropics for tall convection to develop and organize. This is common in the Atlantic when there is a La Niña in the Pacific. However, this is a La Niña year, which normally would shut down the wind sheer and allow higher tropical activity. 

As we saw in Dr. Wood’s tweet above, there were two La Niña years in the top 5 low seasons (1984 and 1988)

2) Saharan Air Layer/Dust

There has been plenty of events blowing large amounts of dust from The Sahara off the African continent into the Atlantic. This both helps with very dry air AND can coat the ocean with a layer of dust inhibiting normal evaporation and storm development. Yes, I know the waves slosh around and mix up the surface conditions, but it has been documented to be a factor. 

Bottled Up Waiting To Burst?

What about the rest of the season? We are in uncharted territory simply because there are many factors that still support storms.  But we have records that show both the season remaining quiet and late surges. (Got a good home improvement contractor?)

The purpose for storms is to release energy. That is what all storms on our planet do. They attempt to redistribute an imbalance of heat, and the result is wind, rain, and snow.   

There have been some seasons that were low on activity, but when the storms got going they were devastating. 

Examples: 

• 1992 only had 7 named storms. One of them was Andrew.
• 1999 gave us Hurricane Floyd, Category 4 storm that impacted the entire east coast of the US.
• 2001 brought Iris and Michelle both Category 4 storms in the Caribbean.
• 2007 produced Felix (a Category 5 storm in the Caribbean).

Historical Tropical Storm Formation By Month

August

September 

October 

Hurricane Season Forecast: June 1 Through November 30

NOAA 2022 Hurricane Forecast- Above Normal Again

Forecast From Colorado State University

Atlantic Hurricane Forecast

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