July 29 Severe Storm Risk Today Then Improving This Weekend
July 29 2022
Friday Morning Update
This has been a frustrating weather week locally. Some places have had routine storms, while others are approaching drought conditions in central Maryland. I have heard plenty of concerns from Frederick County for example, while storms dumped rain to the north in PA and east across metro Washington, Baltimore, and Annapolis.
Today there is a risk for storms to turn severe, mainly south, but we do expect more widespread rain showers to develop. More on that below.
BUT FIRST…. The Fireball
Did you hear about a fireball last night? It was around 9:56 PM. I will explore more later, but wanted to put this early report today. It includes two videos from Delaware to Virginia.
Morning Surface Weather
Today we watch the cold front arriving from the Northwest, which a wave of energy will ride ahead of it. This is what southern areas have a better chance for strong to severe storms… but it all depends on the timing and arrival for how far north it may reach.
In our region northern areas will get into the cooler air sooner, so the focus for severe storms will be farther south.
Satellite Loop 5 AM to 7 AM
Look at the lower left and see that cluster of high clouds. The movement shows what we are tracking today.
Severe Storm Risk
Afternoon Temperatures
It will not be as hot, but it will be muggy.
Late Afternoon or Evening Storms?
While the modeling has been poor and here we see they don’t fully agree… A larger event should have a better handle with the morning package. I will post an update on the timing before lunchtime.
5 PM
NAM 3Km –
Shows this impacting mid portions of the Bay, which would include Baltimore and Annapolis.
Animation
HRRR Model –
Shows this with a more focused cluster in southern Maryland.
Animation
NOTICE:
Maryland Trek 9 Begins 2 Days From Today!
I will continue to post weather daily, but my attention will be shifting next week:
My all volunteer team will be hiking and biking 329 from the summit of Wisp to Ocean City in 7 days. We will be sharing the stories of kids in and post cancer treatment and need your support!
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CLIMATE DATA
TODAY July 29th
Normal Low in Baltimore: 67ºF
Record 59ºF in 2014
Normal High in Baltimore: 88ºF
Record 101ºF 2011
Saturday Temperatures
Check out the COOL AIR reaching the mountains. That will not completely get here, but it does signal a drop in humidity this weekend.
Morning
Afternoon
7 Day Forecast
Hurricane Season Forecast: June 1 Through November 30
NOAA 2022 Hurricane Forecast- Above Normal Again
Forecast From Colorado State University
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Recent Storm Reports
May 16 Large Hail Videos And Storm Tracking Map
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*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.