November 26 Rain Ends Then Gusty Winds And Larger Thanksgiving Storm
November 26, 2024 Tuesday Morning Report There is a very busy weather week ahead for the holiday. We started off the week with a chilly morning and mild afternoon on…
Severe Storm Watch In Addition To The Flood Watch For Monday July 18
NOAA
Maryland Weather
National Weather Service
Severe Weather
Warnings
Monday Afternoon Update
The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for our region until 10 PM. This is the next step in the severe weather alerts that has been expected since this morning. If we look at how we got here, it should not be a surprise:
High Humidity in place, with a line of strong to severe storms forming this afternoon through tonight. This line may slow down or stall over some areas, producing rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour.’
Many areas still have soggy soil or high water from the flooding storms Saturday or multiple rounds last week.
Now the ingredients are in place to expect storms to turn severe. More on that below, but also keep the Severe Alerts in mind:
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 10 PM
From The National Weather Service local offices
The Flood Watch in central Maryland is still in effect as well.
This includes most of central and northern Maryland, Northern Virginia, and Southern Pennsylvania. Cities include Frederick, Westminster, Baltimore, Washington, Annapolis, Bel Air, York, Lancaster, and Philadelphia.
See the latest FULL REPORTS From The National Weather Service
Note: A Warning will be issued if there is a storm active and being tracked through specific towns. This may include high winds, large hail, an isolated tornado, or flash flooding. ANY storm, event not ‘severe’ may produce dangerous lightning.
Click here to see the Warnings and Watches. They will be updated here as they arrive.
NOAA Severe Storm Risk
Presented earlier, explains the expectation for some (not all) of these storms.
- The Slight Risk is not a promise, but tightens the potential for individual storm cells to produce:
- Any storm may have dangerous lightning
- Flash Flooding with rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hours
- Damaging Wind over 58 mph
- Large Hail over 1 inch diameter, the size of. Quarter.
- Isolated Tornados (a 2% chance)
Rainfall Potential
I am mixing things up a little….
First the LIVE Lightning and Radar. Scroll below to see the latest Computer Model Simulations
Live Lightning and Radar Widget
Use the controls to zoom and pan…
Radar Simulation
HRRR Model
Since my first report this morning I mentioned that the line may slow down or stall. The latest update here shows that may happen along the Maryland and Pennsylvania line. That will be the late afternoon event.
Then it moved through metro Baltimore between 6 PM and 8 PM. I still think we should allow a buffer to arrive a little faster than shown here, and maybe more coverage.
Then the line may slow or stall again around Rt 50 and parts of southern Maryland near the Bay Bridge and south through midnight.
—> slider 2 PM to Midnight
Animations (Compare the HRRR to NAM 3Km)
HRRR (same as slider above in motion)
2 PM to Midnight
NAM 3 Km
2PM to Midnight
Flood Watch- Click For The Full Report
Note: This is the NWS Watch Area… I do believe the flood chance extends to York and Lancaster Counties in PA.
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*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.
