Tuesday June 7 Late Morning Update
The clouds has undoubtedly moved in already, and with the forecast for rain, you might be wondering when and ‘how bad’? This is the point I want to are the short range computer model simulations for how the radar may look later today.
In short, we will have some showers after noon, especially in the mountains, and along the PA line.
The initial push of rain often follows the line of the front ridges and mountain foothills.
The next push will be after 4 PM, when showers and some thunderstorms will develop and reach metro areas.
There is no promise of precise time and location, but the radar simulations below do show the best suggestion. We can compare the HRRR and NAM 3 Km model and see similarities. Both of which show more metro activity between 4 PM and 8 PM, the lingering showers overnight.
We DO NOT have a severe weather risk, but any individual cell can produce dangerous lightning and locally heavy rain.
Noon to 2 AM Wednesday
Noon to 10 PM
Notice the cooler temps (60s to near 70) to our west. This will be under advancing rain and storms.
Here we see the cluster of storms mostly overnight, and moving out in the morning.
Your weather app may be showing rain or a lightning bolt on both days, but the bulk will be during the dark hours.
This short wave will be swing through on a trough Saturday. That is a set up for a larger rain maker. The good news is that this looks like just a one day event. The back news, it will impact the start of the weekend.
After this moves through, we should let the warmer air return next week.
Tuesday and Wednesday will bring thunderstorms. They will not dominate the day, but be enough in the afternoon and evening to pay attention to. The next weather event on Saturday does look like a larger and longer lasting (day-long) event.
NOAA 2022 Hurricane Forecast- Above Normal Again
NOAA Study: Reducing Air Pollution INCREASED Tropical Storms
Atlantic Tropical History: Maps of Origin Regions Every 10 Days
May 16 Large Hail Videos And Storm Tracking Map
*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.
