November 14, 2023

Tuesday Morning Update

We remain in a seasonally chilly period, but also dry! The story this week was the brief warm-up and then coastal storm on Friday. Now, I believe the focus should be on the growing drought! It has been dry and it is getting worse! This will be compounded by the latest trend for that Friday storm to miss us.

This storm is notable because it highlights the continued trend of a year of false hope in computer models. Storms often shown one week away do not play out. It is a trend I will highlight this winter as well.

Behind that storm, colder air will arrive over the weekend into next week.

Drought Monitor: Baltimore/Washington Region

Note: New maps are updated every week by Thursday.

Baltimore Deficit: What is needed to get back to ‘average/normal’

• Since September 1: -2.16”
• Since January 1: -7.04”

Morning Temperatures

Morning Surface Weather

Chilly here in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. A rainy pattern is welcome in the dry Gulf States into Florida.

The Central US is warming up and we will be getting into the 60s in a few days.

Wind Forecast 7 AM to 7 PM

Snapshot At Noon

Afternoon Temperatures

El Niño Winter Updates

Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track

El Niño Advisory

The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impact on the US Winter Storm Track.

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY November 14

Sunrise at 6:49 AM

Sunset at 4:53 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  37ºF

Record 18ºF in 1986

Normal High in Baltimore: 58F

Record 77ºF 1989

Winter Outlook Reports:

Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.

NOAA’s Winter Outlook 2024

Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow

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Temperatures Wednesday Morning

Chilly.

Wednesday Afternoon

Still cooler than average.

Storm Simulation

Thursday Night to Saturday Afternoon

There will be a coastal storm forming off the east coast of Florida… but now the timing does not work in our favor. This Low may stay farther off the coast and the cold front may fall apart when it reaches us.

Closer View Snapshot

Friday Evening

I have continued to focus on this storm due to our need for rain. Also, this may help demonstrate why I doubt forecasted events one week away!

This storm is now forecasted to miss us. The timing of the cold front AND the coastal storm may not link up. With the Low Pressure off the coast and not merging with the cold front, it may be allowed to move farther away and both systems could leave central Maryland and surrounding areas dry.

There is some wiggle room to get a few showers, but nothing significant.

Jet Stream: Thursday Afternoon To Monday Morning

Warming for a few days, followed by a sharply colder air mass into early next week.

Snapshots

Thursday: Warmer

Monday: Much Colder!

7 Day Forecast

Just Dry!  The temperatures will average out cooler than normal, with brief warming Thursday through Saturday, then turning COLDER.

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Explore More

Maryland Snow Climate History And Other Winter Pages

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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