Thursday Afternoon Severe Storm Update September 7

September 7, 2023

Thursday Afternoon

Something has to give, right? In this case, it may be severe storms to break the heat! After 4 days in a row with record-high temperatures, at least we will miss the mark today. That was 101ºF set in 1881 and was the hottest September day on record for Baltimore. But it’s still hot and humid.

Now, we have a cold front approaching and working in increased humidity to produce strong and severe storms. Around noon, they were already prompting warnings in the mountains. This line has been underplayed by the modeling, as I will show below.  In this case, it is best to prepare for the worst potential just in case.

For the record, my son has baseball practice this evening, and I will be watching closely for our plans and team.

NOAA Severe Storm Risk

This Slight Risk is Level 2 of 5. It is potential and NOT a promise. There will be scattered thunderstorms, some of which may reach severe levels.

They may produce winds over 58 mph, hail over 1 inch in diameter, isolated tornados, or even flash flooding.

SEVERE WEATHER ALERTS

A Watch may be issued for a broad area. This would be for a higher POTENTIAL of severe storms. NOT A PROMISE.

A Warning is issued for active storms in progress. These will be tracked for 45 minutes or so across counties and specific towns in the path.

Live Interactive Radar and Lightning

See the setup and forecast maps below.

Weather Set Up Set Up At Noon

Temperatures

Here we see another 90+ degree day, while temps have cooled to the 70s and 60s after storms passed over the western Maryland/West Virginia mountains.

Doppler Radar Snapshot At Noon

There was a distinct line of storms rolling over the ridges. These have prompted many warnings already, in addition to a plethora of lightning. That is common when there is high heat and humidity being broken!

Model Assessments

NAM 3K Model At Noon

Compared to the Doppler Snapshot Above: This was the best performer and still missed most of the initial storm line. This gives an indication that the forecasting will be underplayed.

NAM Model Animation: 1 PM to 10 PM

Here we see the flare-up of activity this afternoon.

K Index at 4 PM

This shows the maximum forcing for developing storms in the mountains and pushing east working on the maximum heating.

Supercell Composite at 4 PM

I find this interesting where there is a highlight just west and north of Baltimore around the Carroll County and York County PA lines.

This suggests the top potential for severe storms that could contain damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a quick spin-up tornado.

WRF Model At Noon

Compared to the Doppler Snapshot Above: This one missed even more of the initial activity.

WRF Model Animation: 1 PM to 10 PM

Also underplaying, but still projecting a very active afternoon, mainly west and north of Baltimore.

Looking Ahead

Storms Breaking The Heat

Rain Forecast Friday to Monday

Increased chance for daily storms especially in the afternoon and evenings through Monday.

7 Day Forecast

While still hot and more humid, we will miss today’s record AND introduce some thunderstorms. The risk of rain and storms will increase through the weekend.

EXPLORE MORE

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I will have a follow-up and recap on our amazing week shortly.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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