August 26 Still Warm Then Cooler Tomorrow And TS Franklin Update

August 26, 2023

Saturday Update

The heat yesterday peaked at 94ºF in Baltimore. A cold front brought showers and T-storms, but they were scattered and not all saw them.

The good news is that the expected rain this morning has not materialized! Another signal that the short term modeling is flawed. Also, the front that moved through has pushed south and lost some energy. It will bring a focus of showers by the beaches this afternoon.

Cooler weather is on the way Sunday into most of next week. We will watch Franklin become a major hurricane and send high waves to the beaches, and then a new tropical system will form in the Gulf of Mexico and may make landfall in Florida. If we get rain from that is still up for question later in the week.

LOCAL WEATHER

Morning Surface Weather

One cold front is moving through, but we still have warm and humid conditions. The risk for rain will be shifting south and focused near the beaches.

The next cold front is the game changer and will arrive with cooler winds on Sunday.

Radar Simulation Noon to 8 PM

Snapshot at 4PM

There will be a cluster of showers near the beaches.

Afternoon Temperatures

It will remain warm and humid.

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY August 26

Sunrise at 6:30 AM

Sunset at 7:47 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  65F

Record 52ºF in 1874

Normal High in Baltimore: 85ºF

Record 101ºF 1948

Subscribe for Email Alerts

Sunday

Cooler winds will hold our temperatures down in the 70s and lower 80s. We should remain dry, but more clouds and a sprinkle can not be ruled out in the evening.

Wind Forecast

Notice the light flow from the northeast.

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures

Extended Forecast: Sunday to Thursday

Here we see Franklin show up on the edge of the map as it moves north and becomes a hurricane.

It will curve away from the US and be close to Bermuda. The next cold front will stall along the eastern US on Monday. There will be a period of rain while waiting for Franklin to pass by.

Snapshots

Wednesday

Thursday

Wave Forecast Animation

TS Franklin is expected to become a Category 2 Hurricane and pass west of Bermuda. This will be far off the US east coast, but still produce swells and waves up to 6 Ft in Ocean City, MD pic.twitter.com/JMADUWIbNS

— Justin Berk (@JustinWeather) August 25, 2023

ECMWF Model

This product shows the new Gulf storm holding stronger and making a turn south into the Atlantic and then stalling well off the coast. This scenario keeps the rain away from our region.

Tropical Storm Franklin

Located in the Atlantic, winds are up to 65 mph and it will make a turn more north and strengthen into a major hurricane  It is forecast to miss the United States early next week, but send high waves to the East Coast. It will be closer to Bermuda.

Morning Snapshot and National Hurricane Center Stats

Update at 5 AM EDT Thu Aug 26

• LOCATION…22.8N 65.8W
• ABOUT 350 MI…565 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
• ABOUT 660 MI…1060 KM S OF BERMUDA
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…992 MB…29.30 INCHES

Tropical Satellite Loop

Tropical Storm Force Winds: Extend 105 miles from the center.

We can see the influence of wind shear FROM the west blowing the top of the clouds away from the center. This is what is limiting growth for now. That is expected to diminish as this turns north, allowing it to strengthen into a hurricane over the weekend.

Forecast Track and Advisories From The National Hurricane Center

EXPLORE MORE

2023 Hurricane Season Forecast With An El Niño Watch

7 Day Forecast

Cooler winds arrive Sunday as the chance of showers increases early next week.

The impact of TS Franklin will bring high waves to the beaches. Then we watch the new tropical system in the Gulf that may (or may not) bring us rain by the end of the week.

EARLIER THIS MONTH:  Maryland Trek 10 For These Kids

I will have a follow-up and recap on our amazing week shortly.

Subscribe for eMail Alerts

EXPLORE MORE

2023 Hurricane Season Forecast With An El Niño Watch

La Niña Has Ended. El Niño May Return By Fall

Aurora Photos From Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia

Please share your thoughts, and best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media

• Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

• Twitter

• Instagram

RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

#FITF