Conditions: Baltimore, Maryland, 12/04/2024 11:10:03 pm
Temperature

44°

Cloudy

21°

Dew Point
Relative Humidity

39%

Feels Like

38°

Wind (SW)

12mph

Air Pressure

29.75

Sun
Sun Rise

07:10 AM

Sun Set

04:43 PM

Day Length

09:33 Hours

Difference

1 min 3 sec loss

Moon
Moon Rise

10:29 AM

Moon Set

07:44 PM

Next: First Quarter

Dec 08,2024

Moon Phase

Waxing Crescent

Climate
Average Low

31°

49°

Average High
Record Low

13°


(1966)

74°


(1982)
Record High
Conditions

El Niño Advisory Declared By NOAA On June 8

El Nino
NOAA
Forecast
Warnings

June 8 2023

Today NOAA, The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration declared an El Niño Advisory. This is an upgrade from the Watch previously in place and does not come as a surprise after our 3 years or Triple Dip La Niña.

Warming water in the tropical Pacific Ocean has been expected and has been factored into other long-range forecasts for the tropical season in the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean. The conditions are expected to grow stronger through the upcoming winter of 2023 to 2024.

NOAA Report

In May, weak El Niño conditions emerged as above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strengthened across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

 

All of the latest weekly Niño indices were more than +0.5°C: Niño-3.4 was +0.8°C, Niño-3 was +1.1°C, and Niño1+2 was +2.3°C.

 

Area-averaged subsurface temperature anomalies remained positive, reflecting the continuation of widespread anomalous warmth below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

 

EXPLORE MORE

2023 Hurricane Season Forecast With An El Niño Watch

 

Influence Around The Globe

In the Pacific Ocean, warmer water leads to more storms and hurricanes.

Those storms increase the upper-level winds FROM THE WEST.

In the Atlantic Ocean, those upper-level winds sheer the tops of high clouds, limiting tropical storm development.

El Nino Weather Tropics Pacific and Atlantic

 

Video: More On El Niño

For the May average, low-level wind anomalies were westerly over the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convection was enhanced along the equator and was suppressed over Indonesia.

Both the equatorial SOI and traditional SOI were significantly negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the emergence of El Niño conditions.

The most recent IRI plume indicates the continuation of El Niño through the Northern Hemisphere during the winter of 2023-24.

 

Confidence in the occurrence of El Niño increases into the fall, reflecting the expectation that seasonally averaged Niño-3.4 index values will continue to increase. Another downwelling Kelvin wave is emerging in the western Pacific Ocean, and westerly wind anomalies are forecasted to recur over the western Pacific. At its peak, the chance of a strong El Niño is nearly the same as it was last month (56% chance of November-January Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.5°C), with an 84% chance of exceeding moderate strength (Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.0°C). In summary, El Niño conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2023-24.

 

 

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Also See: 

Smoke Forecast June 8: Worst Day For Mid Atlantic

June 8 weather smoke Thursday morning

 

La Niña Has Ended. El Niño May Return By Fall

 

Aurora Photos From Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia

Aurora Northern Lights April 23 Deep Creek Lake Maryland

 

Please share your thoughts, and best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media

 

RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos, and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor that can check my work when I needed it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos, when she is able. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

#FITF