Snow Update Timeline Friday to Saturday and Latest NWS Snow Maps

Thursday Afternoon March 9, 2023

I realize it is a sunny and mild afternoon, and the idea of snow or any weather event tomorrow may seem far-fetched. I am presenting my Storm Smart program at a middle school in Anne Arundel County, but I gathered this info to share with you on my break.

I wanted to show you the latest Storm Simulation from the High-Resolution NAM 3 Km.  I’ve included snapshots to help with the timeline.

My original call is in line with the new National Weather Service snow maps. I have a few to share with you as well. I aim to have my final call, if needed, this evening.

Set Up Thursday Afternoon

The storm does look impressive, with wide coverage across the central US. It will be reaching us by Friday morning.

Radar Simulation

7 AM Friday to Noon Saturday

The leading edge of snow may reach parts of central Maryland between 8 AM and 10 AM.

Metro areas may get a brief mix, then turn to rain. The snow will remain for a few hours in the northern suburbs near and north of the PA line. These are the climatologically favored colder areas.

Rain will spread north and end by midnight, then the Coastal Low will take over and bring snow BACK SOUTH INTO MARYLAND by Saturday Morning. This may include Delmarva.

Friday Morning

Temperatures

The freezing air will be confined well north and west. Yes, it can and will snow with temps above 32ºF, but limit any potential stickage to the grass.

9 AM Snapshot

Snow will be moving in at the end of the commute but during the rising sun angle.

Any snow laying will be slushy in the colder areas.

12 PM- NOON

Slushy snow for the colder inland areas, but a cold rain for most of the region.

4 PM Snapshot

Midnight

Snow in the mountains, but Part 1 of the storm for us will be done.

Saturday Morning 7 AM

The Coastal Low will try to send a band of snow back south. This may accumulate near the PA line early before 8 AM.

Saturday 11 AM

The band of snow and rain mix will cross Delmarva. It is likely the temps will be too warm for stickage.

Temperatures

Not much freezing air to be found.

My First Call For Snow Impact Remains

See the NWS Maps below.

This is my best simplified expectation. I will NOT suggest snow amounts yet.

This is favorable for inland areas AWAY from the Chesapeake Bay and in the higher hills. This does not favor urban, coastal, or Delmarva locations. However, that Coastal formation and timing in the morning could bring them snow before sunrise to have the best chance to lay a coating.

Most likely I will take any model suggestions for snow totals and LOWER THEM to account for melting AND the tendency to push north at the very end.

National Weather Service Snow Maps

Compare the Expected and High End for Maryland and Pennsylvania. This accounts for the likely impact with snow and temperatures, but also the worst case if the storm pushes stronger or colder.

Maryland – Expected

Maryland – High End

Pennsylvania – Expected

Pennsylvania – High End

Realistic DOUBTS About Snowfall In March

1. Snow falling during the day has more hindrance to stick with the higher March sun angle.
2. The ground will have a few nights of freezing temps to chill, but will still retain plenty of latent warmth.
3. The coastal Low Bombing Out is a wild card with the transfer of energy, pulling cold air in, and back end snow for Delmarva.
4. The bias of this model (among others) all winter, has been to plot storms farther south than they verify.

If you want snow, you want the track farther south than shown here. If this ends up north, it would diminish snow chances.

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REPORT: March Snow and Extreme Weather History

March Snow and Extreme Weather History

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

My REALISTIC Expectations for the COLD OUTLOOK

Also See:

Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts

See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.

RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos, and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss.

I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:

I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct!

I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect predicting the future.

All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor that can check my work when I needed it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos, when she is able. That could be AFTER you read this.

I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…

It’s part of my charm.

#FITF

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out. https://justinweather.com/2022/11/22/winter-outlook-2023-for-snow-not-typical-la-nina-plus-polar-vortex-disruption/

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

https://justinweather.com/2022/11/20/atmospheric-memory-suggests-active-winter-storm-pattern-outlook/

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/21/winter-outlook-2023-from-noaa-very-different-than-farmers-almanacs/

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. https://justinweather.com/2022/08/31/record-august-for-no-named-tropical-storms-closer-look-at-snow-following/

Woolly Bear Caterpillars

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/25/winter-weather-outlook-from-the-wooly-bear-caterpillar/

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/28/winter-weather-folklore-top-20-and-more-outlook-signals-from-nature-for-cold-and-snow/

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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