March 5 Sunny Sunday Then Pattern Changing During The Week

March 5, 2023

Sunday Morning

I really need to go back and plot how many weeks in a row we’ve have had a warm Thursday, Cold or Windy Saturday, then pleasant a Sunday. Well, here we go again.

Enjoy today as the jet stream will be shaking things up this week and bring in that late taste of winter. This does not promise a snowstorm. It will however, bring mornings near freezing and cooler days. There is a storm next weekend to watch and I will continue to show you the projections with caution.

Morning Surface Weather

We get a sunny start and mild day in our region. There is snow from Northern Pennsylvania to central New York and a cold front that will swing through tonight. This is the tame part of the week ahead.

Jet Stream Summary

Monday Morning March 6 to Tuesday Morning March 14

The Pacific cold storm track will be moving to the East Coast.

Temperatures Today

Morning

With the clear sky and light wind, many places have dropped to near, or below freezing.

Afternoon

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY March 5

Normal Low in Baltimore:  31ºF

Record 10ºF in 1873

SNOW: 6.2” in 2015

Normal High in Baltimore: 51ºF

Record 83ºF in 1976

SUNSET is 6:03 PM

REPORT:

March Snow and Extreme Weather History

Monday Weather

Still mild with increasing clouds.

Morning

Afternoon

Monday Night to Tuesday Morning

A quick moving short wave will arrive with the transition to a cooler pattern. It may bring light rain showers into Tuesday morning. I am suspicious of the snow plot in Pennsylvania. The winter weather has been verifying farther north with most events. So this little event may help tell us if that bias is still showing up as an error too far south. If so, we can continue to apply that to the end of the week storm.

Looking Ahead

Monday Evening To Tuesday Evening

A weak system will pass through to our north. The moisture may not reach us with more than clouds, but it will shift the winds and start the cooling trend.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

My REALISTIC Expectations for the COLD OUTLOOK

Storm Development?

ECMWF Model

The entire global cycles support an East Coast storm. But each day we see a different solution. I am simplifying what I share with just one model here for now. But comparing each day leads to low confidence.

I am hedging my expectations for now and would rather be pleasantly surprised. Based on my analysis and winter documentation, I would not expect this model to have a good grip until possibly Wednesday.

Friday Morning to Sunday Night

This latest projection shows Low Pressure passing to our south. This would allow snow (north) and a wintry mix to develop… Watching the Coastal Low stall is a classic cut off Low. Where it may do that could be the make or break with this event.

Snapshots

Saturday Morning

This shows a climatological favor for INLAND SNOW and RAIN ELSEWHERE.

Again: I expect this will change many times over the next few days. I do not trust this until I see consistency or a trend I can identify and jump ahead of.

Saturday Evening

Here we see the Coastal Low nearly stalling and bombing out off the coast. LOCATION is key and it is prudent to suggest this will verify with something different than we see one week away.

Again: I expect this will change many times over the next few days. I do not trust this until I see consistency or a trend I can identify and jump ahead of.

7 Day Forecast

We will be entering a period of BELOW AVERAGE Temperatures. This does look a lot like most of the winter we’ve had, only now it will be cooler than it should be.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos, and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss.

I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:

I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct!

I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect predicting the future.

All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There has been no editor that can check my work when I needed it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos, when she is able. That could be AFTER you read this.

I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…

It’s part of my charm.

#FITF

Also See:

Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts

See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out. https://justinweather.com/2022/11/22/winter-outlook-2023-for-snow-not-typical-la-nina-plus-polar-vortex-disruption/

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

https://justinweather.com/2022/11/20/atmospheric-memory-suggests-active-winter-storm-pattern-outlook/

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/21/winter-outlook-2023-from-noaa-very-different-than-farmers-almanacs/

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. https://justinweather.com/2022/08/31/record-august-for-no-named-tropical-storms-closer-look-at-snow-following/

Woolly Bear Caterpillars

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/25/winter-weather-outlook-from-the-wooly-bear-caterpillar/

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/28/winter-weather-folklore-top-20-and-more-outlook-signals-from-nature-for-cold-and-snow/

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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