January 30, 2023
Monday Afternoon Update
This is a quick midday update on the weather changes on the way tomorrow. I just finished two FITF assemblies at Easton Middle School, and I told the students about the challenge of getting snow this winter. This week adds complexity with the arctic front and southern storm, plus the timing for our region.
As I mentioned in my prior report, the first taste of winter showing up will be on Tuesday across central Maryland. We still may have snow to discuss on Wednesday, but let’s focus on the short term for now.
Here is a look at the setup and a few model outlooks for Tuesday. It will not be a heavy event and will begin with warm ground. But if this progresses, we might see some work needed on area roads Tuesday night.
The cold front is still just to our west across the mountains and crawling. This is the challenge with the progress in timing and how far it may reach. Light snow showers are falling on the other side, and it appears that will be our weather from Tuesday into Wednesday.
If you look at Texas (bottom center) on the map, there is light snow and ice near Dallas. There may be an ice and snowstorm developing there and expanding on the cold side of that Cold Front.
While we have an afternoon in the 50s, notice the 20s deep into Texas. Farther into that arctic air mass, temps drop well below zero across the Northern Plains. This is a potent block of cold air, but it is not moving fast.
Timing the movement and plotting the reach of that cold air is still a challenge. Here is where the freezing line may be tonight.
The front is forecast to cross into central Maryland with light rain. There may be some sleet mixed in.
The slow moving front may stall as impulses of showers will ride along it. If we get a chance for light sleet or snow it will increase later in the evening and at night.
Rain south of the front, with flurries or light snow on the north of the cold air.
Flurries and snow showers become a little more widespread.
Notice while it will be cold and we get winter precipitation, the freezing line may still not fully be here. Roads will be wet, but that may change by Wednesday morning.
As I mentioned, the coverage of precipitation will increase in the evening and at night.
This also shows the northern band of precipitation setup across our region with snow.
This is a new development… Our American Model is increasing the odds of light snow as well.
This is my concern for this mini event… Temps drop to near or below freezing. Wet pavement may turn icy for this commute. It is worth watching.
I keep asking that you keep an open mind as computer model guidance often has trouble with these arctic air masses.
It looks like light snow or sleet is more likely on Tuesday. We have not gotten into Wednesday yet, and I will address that in my next report.
The core of the arctic air will arrive this weekend. Saturday is expected to remain in the 20s for much of our region.
FITF – Faith in the Flakes
Today Is 3rd Latest
Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts
See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.
Click here for the full report
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I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.
Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook
Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.
Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following
Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow
