January 26, 2023
Thursday Evening Update
Do you remember the NOAA Outlook for early February was expecting the East Coast to be warm again? Well, that may not be the case if the European ECMWF Model has anything to do with it. We will take a look at what it is showing below.
I do agree with many who have been pessimistic about this winter:
Well, the model plots I will show you below have that starting to show up.
The Polar Vortex is forecast to dislodge again and track into Eastern Canada by the end of next week. This is not a 2014 repeat visit to the US. It is however, a push of colder air and buckling of the jet stream. The timing will try to link up with more energy from Texas and move across the East Coast.
The European Model Ensemble shows our mild weekend (based in Baltimore), followed by falling temperatures next week. I do not like to take these numbers as definitive, but it does lean in the right direction if you want a change and snow. More on that below.
We are crossing the threshold to the back half of winter, and what should be prime time for snowstorms in the Mid Atlantic, but the season has not even started yet for the cities. As of today, Baltimore’s BWI snow drought holds the solo spot ranking 3rd latest for the first measurable snowfall. It is important to note the other dates on top of the list were in 1914 and 1973. This is rare, but it has happened before. Just a long time ago!
The next spot is February 6th set in 1914 and we have a chance to not beat that!
Today Will Solo Place For 3rd Latest
Desperate times are the reason for this post. I do hope as you read my weather updates, you understand I am sharing what I see, not wish-casting. I love snow and do not want to be disappointed. I have clients with businesses that rely on snow and they are quite anxious to have something to look forward to. So here we go:
(I will show key snapshot below)
THESE ARE NOT FORECASTS: THESE ARE PROJECTIONS FROM ONE COMPUTER MODEL!
I EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS AS WE GET CLOSER.
THE PURPOSE NOW IS LOOKING TO TRACK FOR TRENDS, CONSISTENCY, OR FLIPPING.
Sun Jan 29 to Sat Feb 4
We have established much less confidence in the GFS Model, but I will continue to show what may be on display in your weather app. This does show a different solution
How can there be such a big difference?
These models have a different set up of very complex calculations, putting weight on certain aspects in the atmosphere. A small difference early, can lead to a big variation further out in time.
The ECWMF Model has continued to be more reliable in this time frame, so I will focus the key time-frames on that product.
Notice the theme, that Low Pressure keeps tracking to our South-East!
This will be rain event, with heavier rain farther south.
I showed this system in my morning report. It has shifted farther south, but I expect more adjustments. The interest here is that it may help give a hint how this model is handling the atmosphere and if it can handle the next event that follows.
Normally I would NOT show a Nor’easter more that one week ahead of time. But this is part of the cycle that will try to generate next week and helps tell the story.
I do expect this to adjust. As we get closer, the timing of elements may change when and how this storm can form. That could lean to a different day and track than shown here.
This is predicated on the storm actual forming as shown. It would likely be a classic snow inland and rain along the coast set up.
We are entering the prime time for our region to get snow, even in a winter lacking it. The outlooks simply sharing the ‘inside baseball’ of what us meteorologists are looking at with model displays. I do expect them to adjust. That can be anything from changing the timing, storm path, or intensity. I will be looking and showing you any consistency or trends.
Along the way I may share a little more depth and Geek Out. But for now, this is the show in town and I want you to have a front seat with me to watch how it will play out.
FITF.
Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts
See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school
I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.
Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption
Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook
Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.
Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following
Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow
