December 5 2022

Monday Morning Update 

We start the work week on a cold note with a clear sky. There has already been a lot of reports of frost, so if you have a vehicle outside it might be best to warm it up and let it thaw for a few minutes.  Clouds will be on the increase during the day, which means dimming of the sun and maybe another chance to see sun dogs and solar halos.  Then we continue our string of rain every third day, with the next event arrive as soon as tomorrow morning. 

The signal for the change will be with warmer temps mid week, then an attempt to collapse the colder air Friday night and a hint it may arrive with snow. That still depends on which model you want to follow, so it may not show up on your weather app (yet). 

Headlines

• Today: Cold Today With Increasing Clouds
• Tomorrow: Rain again
• Mid Week: Warmer
• Friday: Chance For Snow?

Morning Temperatures

Seasonably cold morning. Lots of frost reports this morning, so if you don’t want to scrape, perhaps let your vehicle warm for 10 minutes. 

Morning Surface Weather

High Pressure in control means a dry start. The next rain event is like the last few, not looking like much now, but organizing to peak as it passes us tomorrow.

Afternoon Temperatures 

It will be cold, but the winds will settle down. 

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY December 5

Normal Low in Baltimore:  32ºF

Record 16ºF in 1966

SNOW: 7.4 inches in 2002

FITF DAY – Later Today I will publish: The history of Faith in the Flakes

Normal High in Baltimore: 50ºF

Record 75ºF 2001

NEW Faith In The Flakes Gear

NEW REPORTS

Comparing The Snow In Decembers With Similar Patterns

Comparing December Cold Pattern Forecast To Snow In Similar Analog Years

December Outlook Trending Colder For Start Of Meteorological Winter

Tuesday Weather:

Radar Simulation: 5 AM to Midnight 

Another day starting with showers. There could be a break in the afternoon, then a final push in the evening may come with heavier cells.

Temperatures 

Morning 

Chilly temps with the rain arriving in the morning.

Afternoon

Still near seasonably levels with the rain.

Looking Ahead

ECMWF Model: Tuesday to Friday Night

This is the colder solution showing our rain event followed by an end of week colder event that may try to bring us a band of snow late Friday. 

If your weather app is NOT showing this, here is why:

Model Comparison: Late Friday Night 

• The ECMWF  and Canadian Models are colder than the GFS
• Most Apps use the America GFS Model.  
• It has a history of being less accurate than the European ECMWF.
• I will start a closer look at this later today.

7 Day Forecast

RELATED REPORTS

Record Snow Cover Across The Northern Hemisphere

Snow Cover Now At 56 Year High In The Northern Hemisphere

My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.

Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook

Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

Winter Outlook 2023 La Niña Triple Dip Expectations

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Wooly Bear Caterpillars

Winter Weather Outlook From The Wooly Bear Caterpillar

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow

Faith in the Flakes Gear

SNOWSTIX – Available Now

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

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