September 29 Remaining Cool As Rain From Ian Arrives Friday

September 29, 2022

Thursday Morning Update 

Cool and Calm before The Storms.  We have settled into true Fall Fashion locally, and it looks like the rain from Ian may reach us earlier.  Rain could arrive later on Friday and last into the weekend while remaining chilly! We need to consider the initial rain from Ian may split off and give us a break later Saturday, before redeveloping Sunday.

Morning Surface Weather

Our setup includes strong High Pressure to the North and Ian to the south. Today here in the Mid Atlantic region we will be in full Fall mode with sunshine and a cool, dry breeze.

Ian is now a Tropical Storm with 65 mph winds this morning. It is forecast to reemerge over the water of the Atlantic and turn up the coast to South Carolina. The rain should reach Maryland later on Friday, bumping up against that dry air.  That boundary should be to our north, so we get in on the rain and will keep that pattern through early next week. 

Track For Ian

NHC has it remaining a Tropical Storm, but I believe it has a chance to regain intensity to a Category 1 Hurricane before the second landfall.

Tropical Ian Morning Update and NEW LANDFALL STORM VIDEOS: 

Click for full report

Ian A Tropical Storm Thursday Morning: New Landfall Videos And Forecast Over Atlantic

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures 

CLIMATE DATA

TODAY September 29

Normal Low in Baltimore:  54ºF

Record 38ºF in 1951

Normal High in Baltimore: 75ºF

Record 91ºF 1945

When Is The First Frost?

Average Frost And Freeze Dates in Maryland and Pennsylvania

Friday Weather

Morning

Afternoon 

Rain From Ian

Simulation Radar: 8 AM Fri to 6 AM Sat NAM 3 Km

Long Range Forecast For Ian

ECMWF Model: Thursday Morning to Tuesday Afternoon 

We need to consider the initial rain from Ian may split off and give us a break later on Saturday, before redeveloping Sunday.

Flash Flood Potential: National Hurricane Center

Rainfall Potential: ECMWF Model

These totals will adjust with each model run tracking the remains of Ian. The consistency has been over a few inches widespread between Friday to Tuesday. This may produce some local flooding.

7 Day Forecast

Rainfall will depend on how Ian behaves. The initial rain will push in Friday, then split from the Upper-Level Low.  That leftover circulation will keep showers around and may redevelop into a new storm to bring additional rain or showers through Tuesday. 

Temps will remain unseasonably chilly.

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PATTERN CHANGER?

Hurricane Ian May Help Cooler Pattern Change: Monitor For Atmospheric Memory This Winter

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

Hurricane Season Forecast: June 1 Through November 30

NOAA 2022 Hurricane Forecast- Above Normal Again

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