November 13, 2023

Monday Morning Update

Yesterday, Baltimore reached 52ºF, back below average. We will remain cooler for much of the week. It will also be dry, raising concerns for the expanding drought.

If we want to look for the next pattern, it may be with rain most likely on Friday (again).

Drought Monitor: Baltimore/Washington Region

Note: I am aware the reservoirs are low and it is very dry in Pennsylvania as well.

• Shenandoah Mountains: SEVERE to EXTREME
• Frederick MD: Drought
• Rest of our region: Abnormally Dry state is EXPANDING.

Morning Temperatures

Morning Surface Weather

We remain under High Pressure keeping us dry for much of the week.

A rainy pattern has been setting up and may persist all week across the South to the Carolinas. This is looking more like a typical El Niño storm track we may see evolve this winter.

Afternoon Temperatures

El Niño Winter Updates

Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track

El Niño Advisory

The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impact on the US Winter Storm Track

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY November 13

Sunrise at 6:47 AM

Sunset at 4:54 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  37ºF

Record 22ºF in 1911; 2019

Normal High in Baltimore: 58F

Record 77ºF 1955

Winter Outlook Reports:

Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.

NOAA’s Winter Outlook 2024

Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow

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Temperatures Tuesday Morning

Chilly.

Tuesday Afternoon

Still cooler than average.

Storm Simulation

Tuesday to Saturday

This may be a preview of a type of weather pattern we could get during the winter. It is NOT the precise weather, but check this out:

While we remain dry this week, a persistent storm track will set up from East Texas to the Carolinas. A more organized Low Pressure will form across the Gulf States, then redevelop off the Southeast US Coast. This will team up with the Northern branch of the jet stream to enhance the rain for us on Friday.

Closer View Snapshot

Friday Evening

This may be a preview of the complex weather pattern we could see with an El Niño. The Coastal Storm and inland Cold Front timing will make or break the rain opportunity for us. It is too soon to say if this will play out as shown here. If the cold front is faster, then the coastal storm could expand to a larger area, or get pushed offshore. Stay tuned.

Jet Stream: Friday Night to Sunday Night

Following this storm will be a strong cold air mass to make for a chilly weekend.

Sunday

7 Day Forecast

Remaining Chilly and Dry most of this week. The next chance for rain will be on Friday.

Note that these numbers are for Baltimore. This weekend inland areas may stay in the 40s.

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Maryland Snow Climate History And Other Winter Pages

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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