October 18, 2023
Wednesday Night Update
Does it seem like it has rained every weekend lately? I get it! This seems like a weekly occurrence as I prepare an outlook for the weekend rain and try to navigate the timing to fit your plans.
For starters, I did my homework on soggy Saturdays. It has not rained EVERY weekend, but going back through September, here are what the observations were at Baltimore’s BWI: I found 4 out of the last 7. If this weekend verifies as well, that will make 50% of the last two months’ worth. Still not a majority, but more than most of us would like.
Wednesday Night Surface Weather
I am noticing a pattern. In addition to the wet (partial) weekends, there have been warm-ups at the end of the work week. We will get another warming wind ahead of the next storm.
The main area of Low Pressure in the Northern Plains has a trailing cold front that is heading our way. This is similar to the last two weekends, but it is expected to arrive a little sooner.
Another area of Low Pressure that is not seen on the map tonight, will be developing along the coast to spread rain ahead of the main system.
Computer Model Simulation
GFS Model Thursday Night to Monday Morning
I am playing this longer loop to show how the Southern Storm will track off the coast, and we can watch the next system pushing our way and developing overhead Friday evening into Saturday morning.
(Confession) I have a template saved from my report last Wednesday night just to see the similarities. The last paragraph was almost identical. Last week there was a dominant storm from the Gulf of Mexico. This time the main feature is the northern Low Pressure.
While showers will develop during the day (more details below), I want to focus on the evening plans. It looks like rain will become more widespread and steady.
I am showing this frame mainly for my own interest. Actually, the snow that shows up in the Catskill Mountains of New York (blue) is a fun feature. It also signals the colder air flowing in. We will be dependent on the wind speed to drop and allow colder air to develop inland frost. The winds may be too brisk this time, however, there is a second run at frost the following morning.
Key Timeframes Below
The winds will be brisk with and after the rain. As the cold air settles in, the true test for frost may hold until the winds subside on Tuesday morning.
Steady rain will be expanding during the afternoon and evening. I’ve noticed that the recent systems have arrived earlier than the model plots, so I made this broad-brushed.
This looks like a soggy start… However, if we follow the trend of it arriving earlier, the rain may depart earlier as well.
The primary rain should be gone. But with strong winds and unstable air… there may be bands of showers still scattered… especially to the North.
If you are heading to the Ravens Game, it will be dry! However, it will also be chilly with gusty winds. I have Justin Tucker on my Fantasy Team and gladly offer to be his personal meteorologist to help analyze the wind vortices in the stadium.
From the Northwest at 15 mph gusting to 25 mph or higher at times.
A chilly day in the upper 50s around Baltimore. Near 60ºF around the Bay and cooler 40s to lower 50s inland.
At the same time when snow may be falling in the Catskill Mountains of New York, colder air will be settling into our region. The reason I pushed back my expectations for local frost is due to winds still gusting to 25 mph. Frost likes a light wind.
The airflow should settle to near calm. This may allow for maximum cooling.
A light wind can allow for exceptional cooling, which is why I think patchy frost is ‘possible’.
Explore The Average First Frost For MD and PA
